Pete Crow-Armstrong is fast. Very fast. In fact, according to the Statcast sprint speed metric, he’s roughly tied as the second fastest runner in all of baseball behind Bobby Witt Jr. (and Witt has just 0.4 feet/second on him). For a little reference on how small of a gap that is, the second fastest Cubs runner according to Statcast, Nico Hoerner, is 1.6 feet per second slower than PCA, and Hoerner has stolen 74 bases over the last two years (7th most in MLB). So, yeah. Pete Crow-Armstrong is fast.
And because he’s so fast, people often wonder if he’ll eventually become the Cubs leadoff hitter. It’s a bit of an outdated perception on the desired characteristics of that spot in the lineup — I think we can all agree OBP (and maybe also pitches per PA) is a better indicator of expected success for the lineup in that spot — but I understand the preference/question. And, hey, if PCA does get on base at a reasonable clip, he could make a solid leadoff hitter long-term. No arguments there.
To that end, Craig Counsell is open-minded.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Future Leadoff Man?
To start the year, I do not expect (and would not want) to see Pete Crow-Armstrong leading off. For now, Ian Happ seems like the obvious answer. He gets on base at a good clip, he’s a switch-hitter, he sees plenty of pitches, and he’s done it before (.340 OBP, 116 wRC+ as a leadoff man last season). And, hey, he’s not exactly a slow-poke, himself, with 27 stolen bases over the last two seasons and 27.9 ft/s sprint speed (Hoerner is 28.4 and PCA is 30).
With Ian Happ leading off, maybe the Cubs lineup looks a little something like this at full strength:
- Ian Happ, LF (S)
- Kyle Tucker, RF (L)
- Seiya Suzuki, DH (R)
- Michael Busch, 1B (L)
- Dansby Swanson, SS (R)
- Nico Hoerner, 2B (R)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF (L)
- Miguel Amaya/Carson Kelly, C (R)
- Matt Shaw, 3B (R)
If and when PCA has the OBP to carry the leadoff spot, I do think there’s some value to be gained by moving him to the top of the order, and that’s especially true if Matt Shaw establishes himself at the plate. A dream scenario, in which they’re both hitting, probably looks a little more like this:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF (L)
- Kyle Tucker, RF (L)
- Seiya Suzuki, DH (R)
- Michael Busch, 1B (L)
- Matt Shaw, 3B (R)
- Ian Happ, LF (L)
- Dansby Swanson, SS (R)
- Nico Hoerner, 2B (R)
- Miguel Amaya/Carson Kelly, C (R)
In this version of the Cubs lineup, you maintain a solid enough lefty/right balance, you push Ian Happ’s consistently solid production to the second half of the lineup to stretch it, and you push Dansby Swanson’s more inconsistent production a couple of spots down. But that’s simply out of the question to start the year. PCA can’t begin the season as the leadoff man and Matt Shaw will have to work his way up the lineup like everyone else.
Why Did PCA Stop Stealing Bases?
But that brings us to the second and third questions in that headline, and the latter point addressed by Craig Counsell in that post by Bruce Levine. Did Pete Crow-Armstrong stop stealing last season? Yeah, he kind of did:
- First 41 games: 13 attempts, 13 steals, 0 Caught Stealing (111 PAs) – .203 OBP
- Next 41 games: 10 attempts, 10 steals, 0 Caught Stealing (144 PAs) – .230 OBP
- Final 41 Games: 7 attempts, 4 steals, 3 Caught Stealing (157 PAs) – .321 OBP
Not only did he simply attempt fewer stolen bases per game as the year went on, but the games in August and September also featured more plate appearances and a higher OBP. So even with many more opportunities to steal, he was stealing less frequently (I’m sure there’s a little bit of noise in there, for example, how often was someone on base ahead of him? But I think you get the picture). And, of course, it was all effectively confirmed by Counsell.
As for why he stopped attempting to steal, I have no clue.
Pete Crow-Armstrong didn’t even get caught stealing until August 17 (and that was actually just a pick-off at third base, not even an attempted stolen base!) and didn’t get caught again until September 7. And after that second caught stealing, he attempted just TWO more steals (getting caught once more) over his final 20 games. So it’s not as if the league simply figured out how to get him more frequently and he started picking his sports more carefully. There’s gotta be a little more to it. Maybe pitchers and catchers just figured out some better ways to hold him, rather than full on catch him?
We all saw the over-excited, hyper-aggressive version of Pete Crow-Armstrong in his 2023 big league debut, and I don’t think we quite want that level of recklessness going forward. But a less-confident, conservative PCA would be a pendulum swing too far in the other direction. Hopefully, this season, he finds the right balance, because he clearly has the talent to steal 50+ stolen bases per year. So once he settles into a nice rhythm on that front – and ALSO starts getting on base at a consistent clip – we can talk about the possibility of him leading off. Until then, somewhere lower in the batting order is the wiser move.