ROBERT SUAREZ — It’s already February 1. And for the Chicago Cubs, that means pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to camp one week from TOMORROW.
But despite the late hour, the following three things appear to be true: (1) The San Diego Padres are still looking to shed (perhaps significant) dollars before the start of the regular season. (2) The Chicago Cubs are still considering roster moves for the bullpen, rotation, and even third base. And (3) The Cubs and Padres have discussed trades involving Dylan Cease and Michael King. But now, there might be a third interesting name to throw into the mix: Flame-throwing closer Robert Suarez. According to Bruce Levine on 670 The Score, that’s more than just a theory to kick around.
Padres Closer Robert Suarez
Here’s the quote via Levine this morning on Inside the Clubhouse:
“(Jed Hoyer) is not done yet. We’re talking about Bregman, we’re talking about Cease, we’re talking about a closer named Robert Suarez with San Diego. These are all things that are still on the table, still being talked about.”
Well, then! That’s an exciting new addition.
They still can’t have Matt Shaw — even in a package for Cease/King and Suarez. But if the Padres are willing to include a closer of that caliber (2.77 ERA, 36 saves, 99.2 MPH fastball last season), a more robust return of big-league pitchers and/or top prospects is probably a little more tenable for Jed Hoyer and the Cubs.
But there are a whole of important notes here. Let’s start with just discussing Robert Suarez, who is extremely talented, but comes with some baggage.
Age: The hard-throwing right-hander will be 34 years old in exactly one month. His velocity is on the rise, so I’m not that concerned about an immediate dropoff for a reliever. But that feels worth pointing out.
Contract: And he’s also very expensive. After one dominant rookie season at age 31 (he was pitching in Japan before that), the Padres inexplicably handed him an enormous 5-year, $46M contract ahead of the 2023 season as part of their wild spending spree.
Now, they’ve already paid down $20M of that $46M sum, leaving him with a three-year, $24M deal, which is far more manageable. But it also comes with some significant escalators.
- $250,000 each for 20, 25, 30, 35 GF
- $500,000 each for 40, 45, 50, 55 GF
Needless to say, he’s not exactly cheap. Of course, that’s the entire reason he’s available. The Padres are clearly in a very tight spot financially, and cleaning at least $8M per year off the books for each of the next three seasons could be important for them.
But other than that, I mean … yeah, he’s awesome.
Last season, Robert Suarez saved 36 games over 65.0 IP with a 2.77 ERA. His 22.9% strikeout rate is very low for a closer, but he was not walking anybody (6.2%), he barely allowed any hits (.215 AVG in 2024, .190 for his career), and he stays off the barrel at an average clip (7.7%). Perhaps most importantly, though, he throws hard. Very hard.
Robert Suarez is a three-pitch reliever, relying primarily on his two near-triple-digit offerings: a four-seamer (71.4%) and a sinker (15.6%), though he also mixes in a changeup (12.6%) to keep batters off balance. That four-seamer is his bread and butter, with a pitch value last season (11.0) that ranked just behind Mason Miller (11.8) and Tanner Scott (12.2) for ninth-best in MLB.
There’s really no question that he’s pretty awesome (although, I’ll note that his ZiPS projections are more “really good” than “elite,” if that means anything to you).
The real question, then, is how serious the Cubs are about TRADING for another late-inning reliever.
On the one hand, we do know that they remain serious about potentially SIGNING another significant late-inning arm, evidenced by their ongoing talks with David Robertson, but Robert Suarez is a bit of a different animal. Although Robertson is much older (39), he’ll cost only money (Suarez will cost money AND prospects/players) and may be a more natural fit as a set-up man for Ryan Pressly in the Cubs bullpen.
The Cubs (and Pressly) made it clear that Pressly was not guaranteed the closer job before the trade, but I do get the sense that he was promised the first crack at it. The Cubs shouldn’t – and probably wouldn’t – stop themselves from improving the team based on a non-promise like that for a guy with one year of control, but it’s something to keep in mind.
So if the only realistic option on the table was a one-player trade for Robert Suarez, I’d guess the Cubs would just lean towards Robertson.
However, if Suarez were to be included in a bigger deal alongside King or Cease, to help even out the Padres reportedly SIGNIFICANT trade demands, then maybe the stars can align on a February blockbuster.
As a reminder/final kicker: The theory of trading for Robert Suarez has been bandied about all offseason, but as far as I know, this is the first time any reporter has actually suggested that it’s being discussed.
Personally, I would love for the Cubs to find a way to land one of those starters + Suarez, but if the starters are not realistically obtainable, I strongly prefer David Robertson as the final piece. In fact, I’d be pretty content with this team if the last and only move they made before Opening Day was David Robertson. I guess we’ll see!