The top remaining free agent starting pitcher is off the market, as Jack Flaherty is going back to the Detroit Tigers.
His payday, though, is far less than most were expecting when the offseason began:
Jack Flaherty's deal will pay him $25 million this year, after which he can opt out. The guaranteed salary in 2026 is $10 million, and it can get as high as $20 million if he starts 15 games this season. Flaherty found a lot of success with the Tigers last year and now he's back.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 3, 2025
For context, MLBTR had projected a five-year, $115 million deal for Flaherty. FanGraphs was at four years and $88-98 million.
For other context, this deal is barely more than the Cubs gave Matthew Boyd.
Flaherty, who just turned 29, posted a 3.17 ERA last year between the Tigers and Dodgers, making 28 starts and managing 162.0 innings. He was worth 3.2 WAR.
I don’t want to speculate too much about what’s going on here, but I will say that this contract is soooooo far below the industry expectations that there has to be a reason. Maybe we outsiders are missing something in the data that makes his huge 2024 bounce-back look like an illusion (and, admittedly, the projections for 2025 are in the 3.80 ERA, 2.5 WAR range). Maybe there are some scary things in the medicals (we know the Yankees backed out of a deadline deal for Flaherty, reportedly over medical concerns). Maybe this. Maybe that.
In other words, this deal looks sufficiently cheap that I’m probably going to hold back on ripping on the Cubs – or any other team – that decided not to sign him at this price level. Until we know a little more anyway.
I should say, though, that because of the structure, at least Flaherty is getting a big one-year payday if he does opt out. At a $25 million AAV, that’s not that far off from what you’d have expected for him on a multi-year deal. It’s just that, you know, it might wind up only one year. And then a Qualifying Offer to ding his market once again …
Circling back to this offseason, you have to wonder whether this means the Tigers know they’re out on Alex Bregman. I’m not saying for sure that they couldn’t afford both, but that’d be a huge 2025 payroll hit if they signed both guys.