While we wait to see if the Chicago Cubs are going to do anything else this offseason, I thought we could take a quick look at how they stack up in the NL Central. Seeing as they are now projected to win the division in a relative landslide per PECOTA, I wanted to dig in a little deeper.
Keep in mind that this is hardly an exact science. To make it look pretty, I simply rolled with the presumed starter at each spot, not a collection of players/platoons, which makes more or less sense for certain spots on certain teams. So if you’re looking for the full Depth Charts for each team, check out this resource at FanGraphs – indeed, that’s what I used for the rotation and bullpen rankings. Otherwise, these individual starter projections are based on ZiPS.
First Base
- Michael Busch (CHC): 111 OPS+, 3.3 WAR
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT): 118 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
- Willson Contreras (STL): 113 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
- Rhys Hoskins (MIL): 105 OPS+, 1.0 WAR
- Jeimer Candelario (CIN): 103 OPS+, 1.6 WAR
Michael Busch is entering his sophomore season with fairly big expectations. His defense improved dramatically as the season went on. And while his offense was up and down (not uncommon for a rookie, even an older one), we saw clear flashes of something much greater than a 111 OPS+. I think a final total in the range of 3.5-4.0 WAR is both reasonable and perfectly great. And that’s more than enough to be the most valuable overall first baseman in the NL Central.
Second Base
- Nico Hoerner (CHC): 101 OPS+, 4.5 WAR
- Matt McLain (CIN): 112 OPS+, 3.6 WAR
- Nick Gonzales (PIT): 106 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
- Brendan Donovan (STL): 115 OPS+, 2.5 WAR
- Brice Turang (MIL): 88 OPS+, 2.5 WAR
Nico Hoerner’s defense carries him here, as his projected OPS+ I higher than only Brice Turang’s in the NL Central. But second base defense is important and Hoerner is borderline (if not definitely) elite at the position. He’s also a very good base stealer and runner, so his lofty projection puts him as the clear favorite for best 2B in the NL Central.
Third Base
- Nolan Arenado (STL): 106 OPS+, 2.9 WAR
- Matt Shaw (CHC): 100 OPS+, 2.3 WAR
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT): 86 OPS+, 1.8 WAR
- Oliver Dunn (MIL): 77 OPS+, 1.0 WAR
- Noelvi Marte (CIN): 78 OPS+, -0.1 WAR
While Matt Shaw’s future surely holds totals much higher than a league average bat and slightly better than average overall WAR totals, I would be perfectly happy with this outcome in 2025. Short of a surprise signing of Alex Bregman, Shaw is going to be a 23-year-old rookie. If he finished behind only Nolan Arenado as the best 3B in the NL Central, how could you not be thrilled? For what it’s worth, if the Cubs do sign Alex Bregman, his projected production (115 OPS+, 3.3 WAR) would give them another top starter at his position. As it stands, they have the second best projected starter in Shaw.
Shortstop
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN): 116 OPS+, 4.8 WAR
- Dansby Swanson (CHC): 98 OPS+, 4.4 WAR
- Masyn Winn (STL): 94 OPS+, 2.9 WAR
- Joey Ortiz (MIL): 100 OPS+, 2.0 WAR
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT): 82 OPS+, 1.0 WAR
Like Hoerner at second base, Dansby Swanson derives most of his value from defense, but shortstop is a much weaker offensive position, so his projected 98 OPS+ is roughly second best in the division, as is his overall WAR total.
Left Field
- Ian Happ (CHC): 116 OPS+, 3.6 WAR
- Jackson Chourio (MIL): 108 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT): 115 OPS+, 2.4 WAR
- Lars Nootbaar (STL): 116 OPS+, 2.3 WAR
- Spencer Steer (CIN): 108 OPS+, 1.8 WAR
Ian Happ was recently crowned the third-best left fielder in MLB behind only Yordan Alvarez and Jarren Duran, which makes his place as the best in the NL Central easy to guess. He is tied for the best projected OPS+ and is a 3x Gold Glover.
Center Field
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 97 OPS+, 3.5 WAR
- Oneil Cruz (PIT): 114 OPS+, 2.9 WAR
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL): 106 OPS+, 1.6 WAR
- TJ Friedl (CIN): 95 OPS+, 1.6 WAR
- Victor Scott II (STL): 68 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
Well, this is fun! Pete Crow-Armstrong projects to be the most valuable starting center fielder in the NL Central this season, ahead of some other promising young players in the division. Obviously, the vast majority of his value is derived from defense and base running, but he has a legitimate shot to be the SINGLE best defensive player in baseball this year. So … that counts for something. And as we saw from July on last season, his offensive ceiling is actually quite high.
Right Field
- Kyle Tucker (CHC): 129 OPS+, 3.7 WAR
- Sal Frelick (MIL): 98 OPS+, 2.2 WAR
- Joshua Palacios (PIT): 104 OPS+, 0.9 WAR
- Jake Fraley (CIN): 94 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
- Jordan Walker (STL): 99 OPS+, 0.5 WAR
Although Kyle Tucker’s WAR projection via ZiPS isn’t blindingly high, I feel confident saying he’s the best overall player in the division. So, yes, he’s the best right fielder. No discussion needed.
Designated Hitter:
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC): 127 OPS+, 3.3 WAR
- Christian Yelich (MIL): 119 OPS+, 2.3 WAR
- Alec Burleson (STL): 110 OPS+, 2.0 WAR
- “Candelnacion-Stephly” (CIN): 1.4 WAR
- Andrew McCutchen (PIT): 93 OPS+, 0.4 WAR
Seiya Suzuki is one of the best hitters in the division, but is blocked from both corner outfield spots by better defenders. So ZiPS sticks him at DH, where his bat helps him run away with the highest overall projected WAR total by a full win.
Catcher:
- William Contreras (MIL): 122 OPS+, 4.2 WAR
- Tyler Stephenson (CIN): 107 OPS+, 2.3 WAR
- Ivan Herrera (STL): 103 OPS+, 1.9 WAR
- Miguel Amaya (CHC): 91 OPS+, 1.2 WAR
- Joey Bart (PIT): 96 OPS+, 1.1 WAR
Catcher is a little more difficult to break down the way we have every other spot, as it is a more dedicated time-share position (as it will be with the Cubs and Miguel Amaya/Carson Kelly). But to keep things simple, I went with the projected “starter” for each team via ZiPS. That leaves Miguel Amaya with a much better year than last year, but overall just the fourth-best starter in the division. That said, this is the ONLY spot on the field in which the Cubs don’t employ the first or second-best projected starter. Pretty cool.
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And here’s where things change. Instead of rolling with ZiPS for the starting rotation and the bullpen, I used Depth Charts, which projects the overall positional group for all expected contributors as a group. And unsurprisingly, the Cubs come up short in both respects, though the differences are relatively small.
Starting Rotation
- PIT: 13.2 WAR
- CIN: 13.0 WAR
- MIL: 12.0 WAR
- STL: 11.5 WAR
- CHC: 11.3 WAR
Bullpen:
- MIL: 3.2 WAR
- PIT: 2.5 WAR
- STL: 2.5 WAR
- CHC: 2.2 WAR
- CIN: 1.3 WAR
Perhaps this is why the Cubs are still hanging around the trade (Michael King? Dylan Cease? Robert Suarez?) and free-agent (David Robertson?) markets for improvements. If Jed Hoyer makes significant-enough additions here before the start of the season, the Cubs could move up the ranks. If he stops short, he’ll be hoping his relative depth for each positional group will make up for the lack of impact-talent.
So to recap, here’s where the Cubs expected starter ranks in projected WAR at each position/group around the diamond in the NL Central.
- First base: 1st
- Second base: 1st
- Third base: 2nd
- Shortstop: 2nd
- Left Field: 1st
- Center Field: 1st
- Right Field: 1st
- DH: 1st
- Catcher: 4th
- Rotation: 5th
- Bullpen: 4th