If you’re reading a Guillotine Leagues waiver wire strategy piece ahead of Wednesday’s FAAB selection, congratulations! You were one of the 10 teams that passed under the guillotine without getting chopped. Eight weeks down, only 10 more to go to a championship.
However, if your Guillotine Leagues are a lot like some of mine, there are suddenly a large number of extremely valuable fantasy football assets on the waiver wire. As we head into the eighth FAAB run of the season on Wednesday, what’s the best strategy for your $1,000 budget (or whatever funds you have left) this early in the season?
This weekly piece will look at a selection of some of the most chopped players across Guillotine Leagues to see how we should bid on them. The full list is at the bottom of the column. If you’re looking for more Guillotine Leagues content, be sure to check out Chop: The Guillotine Leagues Podcast, releasing each week.
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Quarterbacks
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (Chopped in 19.6% of Guillotine Leagues)
Jordan Love picked one of the worst times in Guillotine Leagues to injure his groin, especially against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (Jacksonville Jaguars). As a result, almost 20% of Jordan Love managers were chopped in Week 8. One of his top pass-catchers, Jayden Reed (13.1% chopped) also was a casualty of the Jordan Love injury and the Packers moving away from the passing game when Malik Willis checked in.
This groin injury is tricky heading into the FABB period this week. The team has labeled it “mild to moderate,” which could mean no games missed or a month on the bench. Who can really say at this point? We are entering the time in Guillotine Leagues where only 10 quarterbacks per league are going to be started every week, so hopefully you won’t need to blow your FAAB on an injured player. If you are desperate, I can sign off on 15%-20% of your funds going to Love.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (12.4% Chopped)
C.J. Stroud and teammates Nico Collins and Stefon Siggs were all about 12.5% chopped this week, and now Stroud is set up as one of the most interesting waiver selections of Week 9. Nico Collins is still a couple of weeks away. Stefon Diggs has been lost for the season with a knee injury. Tank Dell hasn’t looked like his explosive self coming back from a broken leg this season. With a tough upcoming matchup against the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football, how much should we actually commit to Stroud in Guillotine Leagues?
Considering this is a win-now format, I don’t think I will be reaching too far to acquire Stroud this week if I have been on the cusp of elimination recently. The quick turnaround, lack of weapons, and the fact that Stroud is just QB22 in fantasy points per game this season don’t make me want to spend the majority of money I have left. I would consider 5%-10% of funds for Stroud a wise investment if your plan is to use him in two weeks when he might have Nico Collins back on the field.
Running Backs
Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers (23.2% Chopped)
Has the run of Jordan Mason as a waiver wire fantasy football hero come to an end? If reports out of San Francisco are to be believed, Christian McCaffrey will return for the 49ers game in Week 10 after the bye week in Week 9. Mason has now spent large parts of two of his past three games injured and on the sidelines, unable to shake his nagging shoulder injury. His 16% of snaps and just 18 total yards led to almost a full quarter of his teams getting chopped in Guillotine Leagues. No other player was higher than 19.6%.
I can’t really advise you to spend anything more than a couple of bucks on Jordan Mason at this point. Will he be healthier in Week 10? Most likely, but what is his role with McCaffrey back? It will be RB2 on his own team at a minimum. Mason was the waiver wire pickup of the year for about a month, but that time might have come to an unceremonious end with this injury and poor performance that had many of his managers on the outside looking in.
Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks (18.5% Chopped)
Kenneth Walker was the fourth-most chopped player this week after a fairly pedestrian game on Sunday where he played just 55% of the snaps and touched the ball 13 times for 45 yards. One could look at this usage and production and think it is a fluke. Walker is a bell-cow and this was just an anomaly during his elite season. Is it, though? This is now three out of the last five games where Kenneth Walker has played fewer than 60% of snaps. He also has fewer than 20 touches in three of five games. He might not be the best investment in Guillotine Leagues if you’re looking for a 25-touch running back.
Walker can go off for multiple touchdowns at any given time. He does have six scores in his last five games. But looking at running backs chopped just below the number Walker saw this week, I would much rather spend more to get Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, or Derrick Henry, knowing their roles on their respective teams. I will likely max out at 15% of my FAAB for Walker in any Guillotine Leagues he is available this week.
Wide Receivers
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (19.3% Chopped)
Drake London is a player who has suddenly become available in almost 20% of leagues and who should demand quite a FAAB bidding war in Guillotine Leagues. London had a three-game streak with at least 60 yards and a touchdown halted on Sunday. Altogether, he has five scores in his last seven games and plays 100% of snaps regularly for one of the pass-friendliest offenses in football. Atlanta is sixth in the league with 251 passing yards per game.
London is a player I want on my team for the stretch run. The Falcons have upcoming games against the Saints, Vikings, Giants, and Commanders in the next seven weeks, all of which are elite wide receiver matchups. In no way will I let one disappointing game distract me from spending up to 30% of my FAAB on Drake London for Week 9.
Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills (15.6% Chopped)
A bid for Amari Cooper in Week 9 is a bid for what he might become in the Buffalo Bills offense, not for what he has been. Cooper did see his snaps increase from 35% to 50% this week as he gets more familiar with the offense Josh Allen runs. He was much more productive last week with 66 yards and a score, as he had just one catch for three yards in Week 8. But there won’t be many more weeks like that for the rest of the season. Cooper is a player who will likely have a discount this week in Guillotine Leagues thanks to his dud, but it’s a smart investment.
Mack Hollins and Khalil Shakir have already seen their snap share drop with Cooper in town. Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling didn’t make it on the field in Week 8. The role for Amari Cooper is only going to grow and this will be his best quarterback since he played with Dak Prescott in 2021. In any Guillotine Leagues where I can find him, I will try to get him on my roster for cheaper than other receivers like D.J. Moore, Tee Higgins, and Jayden Reed.
Tight End
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (17.0% Chopped)
Brock Bowers must not have gotten the memo about National Tight End Day in Week 8. he put up a decent five catches for 58 yards, but did not score and finished the week as TE18. However, I don’t think this one down game should persuade us to not pursue Bowers in Guillotine Leagues if he is available this week. Bowers had a streak of three straight games with at least 12 fantasy points before Week 8 and trails only George Kittle in overall fantasy points at the position this year.
There are other tight ends that have emerged that might be valuable on your waiver wire such as Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, or Hunter Henry. But Bowers has more snaps, target share, and usage than all of them, even if it is with Garnder Minshew under center. If one of my teams has been piece-mealing tight ends to make my roster work all season, I have no issue going for 20% of funds on Bowers. He is one of the rare tight ends who will be consistent on a weekly basis in 2024.
Guillotine Leagues Week 8 Top 50 Chopped List
Below are the 50 players chopped in the most Guillotine Leagues after Week 8. The percentage indicates the number of leagues in which they were chopped.
- SF RB Jordan Mason: 23.2%
- GB QB Jordan Love: 19.6%
- ATL WR Drake London: 19.3%
- SEA RB Kenneth Walker: 18.5%
- NYJ RB Breece Hall: 17.7%
- PHI RB Saquon Barkley: 17.3%
- LV TE Brock Bowers: 17.0%
- DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 15.9%
- BUF WR Amari Cooper: 15.6%
- BAL RB Derrick Henry: 15.0%
- CHI WR DJ Moore: 14.8%
- CIN QB Joe Burrow: 14.1%
- MIN RB Aaron Jones: 13.8%
- CIN WR Tee Higgins: 13.6%
- GB WR Jayden Reed: 13.1%
- SEA WR Tyler Lockett: 13.1%
- CHI TE Cole Kmet: 12.9%
- WAS RB Brian Robinson: 12.8%
- NYJ WR Davante Adams: 12.7%
- PHI WR A.J. Brown: 12.7%
- HOU WR Stefon Diggs: 12.6%
- HOU WR Nico Collins: 12.5%
- HOU QB C.J. Stroud: 12.4%
- CAR RB Chuba Hubbard: 11.8%
- SEA WR DK Metcalf: 11.6%
- DEN RB Javonte Williams: 11.1%
- BUF QB Josh Allen: 11.0%
- SF WR Deebo Samuel: 10.9%
- MIN WR Jordan Addison: 10.9%
- NYG WR Malik Nabers: 10.4%
- DET RB David Montgomery: 10.4%
- CHI QB Caleb Williams: 10.3%
- DAL TE Jake Ferguson: 10.1%
- SF RB Christian McCaffrey: 10.0%
- BUF TE Dalton Kincaid: 9.9%
- DAL RB Rico Dowdle: 9.9%
- TB WR Mike Evans: 9.8%
- MIA WR Jaylen Waddle: 9.6%
- PIT WR George Pickens: 9.5%
- ARI RB James Conner: 9.4%
- WAS QB Jayden Daniels: 9.3%
- MIA WR Tyreek Hill: 9.3%
- NYJ WR Garrett Wilson: 9.2%
- CLE RB Nick Chubb: 9.1%
- CIN RB Zack Moss: 9.1%
- DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 9.0%
- SEA QB Geno Smith: 9.0%
- KC RB Kareem Hunt: 9.0%
- DET QB Jared Goff: 8.9%
- JAC RB Travis Etienne: 8.9%