Mets vs. Marlins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 30, 2023

March 29, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The New York Mets start their season as road favorites (-128) in a matchup with the Miami Marlins on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on on MLB Network from LoanDepot park.

Max Scherzer will get the ball for New York while Miami counter with Sandy Alcantara.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Mets odds to win: -128
Marlins odds to win: +108
Spread: Mets -1.5
Total: 7 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, March 30, 2023
Time: 4:10 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Mets vs. Marlins?

Mets and Marlins Betting Trends (2022)

The Mets won 82 of the 126 games they were the moneyline favorite last season (65.1%).

New York had a record of 68-38 in games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -128 or shorter last year (64.2%).

The Marlins were underdogs in 97 games last season and won 33 (34%) of those contests.

Miami had a record of 24-53, a 31.2% win rate, when it was set as the underdog by +108 or more by sportsbooks last season.

The Mets combined with their opponents to go over the total 87 times last season for an 87-69-8 record against the over/under.

Games involving the Marlins went over the total set by oddsmakers in 70 of 162 chances last season.

Mets Stats & Insights (2022)

Last season the Mets scored the fifth-most runs in baseball (772 total, 4.8 per game).

New York ranked 15th in MLB with 171 home runs last season. It averaged 1.1 per game.

The Mets’ .259 batting average was second-best in MLB.

New York’s batters struck out 7.5 times per game, the third-fewest strikeouts in the majors.

The Mets pitching staff ranked first in MLB last season with a collective 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

New York’s 3.57 team ERA ranked seventh among all MLB pitching staffs.

Marlins Stats & Insights (2022)

The Marlins scored the 28th-most runs in the league last season with just 586 (3.6 per game).

Miami ranked 24th in Major League Baseball with 144 home runs.

The Marlins had a team batting average of just .230 last season, which ranked 26th among MLB teams.

Miami ranked 22nd with an average of 8.8 strikeouts per game.

The Marlins struck out 9.0 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, eighth-best in MLB.

Miami pitchers had a combined ERA of 3.86 last year, which ranked 13th in MLB.

Mets Key Players to Watch (2022)

Scherzer will start for the Mets, his first this season.

Marlins Key Players to Watch (2022)

The Marlins will send out Alcantara for his first start of the season.

Mets and Marlins Injuries

Mets: Elieser Hernandez: 10 Day IL (Shoulder), José Quintana: 15 Day IL (Rib), Edwin Díaz: 15 Day IL (Patellar), Sam Coonrod: 15 Day IL (Lat), Bryce Montes de Oca: 15 Day IL (Elbow)

Marlins: Steven Okert: 15 Day IL (Adductor), Tommy Nance: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Nic Enright: 15 Day IL (Illness), Anthony Bender: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Max Meyer: 60 Day IL (Elbow)