Mets vs. Marlins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 31, 2023

March 31, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The New York Mets will take the field against the Miami Marlins (0-1) on Friday. The game begins at 6:40 PM ET on MLB Network, with the Mets listed as -115 favorites on the moneyline.

New York’s David Peterson gets the start, and he’ll go against Miami’s Jesus Luzardo.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Mets odds to win: -115
Marlins odds to win: -104
Spread: Mets -1.5
Total: 8 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, March 31, 2023
Time: 6:40 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Mets vs. Marlins?

Mets and Marlins Betting Trends (2022)

The Mets finished with an 82-44 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 65.1% of those games).

New York had a record of 81-42 when it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -115 or shorter last year (65.9%).

The Marlins won 33, or 34%, of the 97 games they played as underdogs last season.

Miami had a record of 29-62, a 31.9% win rate, when it was set as the underdog by -104 or more by bookmakers last season.

The Mets played in 164 games with a set over/under, and combined with their opponents to go over the total 87 times (87-69-8).

Games involving the Marlins went over the total set by oddsmakers in 70 of 162 chances last season.

Mets Stats & Insights (2022)

Last season the Mets were the fifth-highest scoring team in MLB play averaging 4.8 runs per game (772 total).

New York ranked 15th in baseball with 171 total home runs last season.

The Mets’ .259 batting average was second-best in the majors.

The team struck out 7.5 times per game, the third-best mark in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Mets had a collective 9.8 K/9 last season to lead MLB.

New York’s 3.57 team ERA ranked seventh among all MLB pitching staffs.

Marlins Stats & Insights (2022)

The Marlins scored 586 runs (just 3.6 per game) last season, which ranked 28th in MLB.

Miami hit 144 homers last season, which ranked 24th in the majors.

The Marlins ranked 26th in MLB with a team batting average of just .230.

Miami ranked 22nd with an average of 8.8 strikeouts per game.

The Marlins had a 9.0 K/9 last season as a pitching staff, eighth-best in baseball.

Miami pitched to a 3.86 last season, which ranked 13th in baseball.

Mets Key Players to Watch (2022)

Peterson will start for the Mets, his first this season.

Pete Alonso finished with a .271 average last season, with 40 home runs and 131 RBI.

Francisco Lindor hit .270 with an OBP of .340 and a slugging percentage of .449.

Brandon Nimmo finished last season with 16 home runs, 64 RBI and a batting average of .274.

Jeff McNeil posted a .326 average with 63 RBI.

Marlins Key Players to Watch (2022)

Luzardo gets the nod for the Marlins and will make his first start of the season.

Luis Arraez had 173 hits with a batting average of .316 last season.

Yuli Gurriel put up 53 runs batted in with 132 hits.

Jean Segura hit .277 a season ago with nine doubles, 10 home runs and 26 walks.

Jon Berti had 17 doubles, three triples, four home runs and 42 walks while batting .237.

Mets and Marlins Injuries

Mets: José Quintana: 15 Day IL (Rib), Elieser Hernandez: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Sam Coonrod: 15 Day IL (Lat), Stephen Ridings: 15 Day IL (Lat), Bryce Montes de Oca: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Edwin Díaz: 60 Day IL (Knee)

Marlins: Steven Okert: 15 Day IL (Adductor), Tommy Nance: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Nic Enright: 15 Day IL (Illness), Anthony Bender: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Max Meyer: 60 Day IL (Elbow)