Red Sox vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Tuesday, April 4, 2023

April 4, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

Following a big two-homer game last time out, Bryan Reynolds leads the Pittsburgh Pirates (2-2) into action as +128 underdogs against the Boston Red Sox (2-2). First pitch from Fenway Park at 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, live on NESN.

Nick Pivetta gets the starting nod for Boston while Roansy Contreras is Pittsburgh’s starter for the contest.

Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds

Red Sox odds to win: -150
Pirates odds to win: +128
Spread: Red Sox -1.5
Total: 9 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Tuesday, April 4, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: NESN

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Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Pirates?

Red Sox and Pirates Betting Trends (2022)

The Red Sox went 48-32 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 60% of those games).

Boston had a record of 18-12 in games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -150 or shorter last year (60%).

Last season, the Pirates were the underdog 135 times and won 47, or 34.8%, of those games.

Pittsburgh had a record of 35-72, a 32.7% win rate, when it was set as the underdog by +128 or more by bookmakers last season.

The Red Sox played in 162 games with an over/under set, and combined with their opponents to go over the total 76 times (76-77-9).

Games involving the Pirates went over the total set by bookmakers in 75 of 162 chances last season.

Red Sox Stats & Insights (2022)

Last season the Red Sox were the ninth-highest scoring team in MLB play averaging 4.5 runs per game (735 total).

Boston ranked 20th in MLB with 155 total home runs last season.

The Red Sox’s .258 batting average was third-best in MLB.

The club struck out 8.5 times per game, the No. 14 average in baseball.

The 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings compiled by the Red Sox pitching staff last season ranked 19th in the majors.

Boston had the 25th-ranked team ERA among all MLB pitching staffs (4.54).

Pirates Stats & Insights (2022)

The Pirates scored the 27th-most runs in the league last season with just 591 (3.6 per game).

Pittsburgh ranked 18th in Major League Baseball with 158 home runs.

The Pirates had a team batting average of just .222 last season, which ranked 29th among MLB teams.

Pittsburgh was one of the least disciplined teams at the plate last season, ranking 28th with an average of 9.2 strikeouts per game.

The Pirates had a 7.9 K/9 last season as a pitching staff, which ranked 22nd in the majors.

Pittsburgh pitchers had a combined ERA of 4.66 last year, which ranked 26th in MLB.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch (2022)

Pivetta will take the mound to start for the Red Sox, his first this season.

Last season, Rafael Devers had a .295 batting average with 27 home runs and 88 RBI.

Alex Verdugo collected 166 hits, posted an OBP of .330, and a .405 SLG.

Justin Turner finished last season with 13 home runs, 81 RBI and a batting average of .278.

Raimel Tapia collected 109 hits, posted an OBP of .292 and a .380 SLG.

Pirates Key Players to Watch (2022)

Contreras will make his first start of the season for the Pirates.

Reynolds accumulated a batting average of .262, while hitting 27 home runs last season.

Andrew McCutchen racked up 69 runs batted in with 122 hits.

Carlos Santana hit .202 a season ago with 18 doubles, 19 home runs and 73 walks.

Ke’Bryan Hayes hit .244 with 24 doubles, three triples, seven home runs and 48 walks.

Red Sox and Pirates Injuries

Red Sox: Brayan Bello: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 15 Day IL (Elbow), James Paxton: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Hip), Joely Rodriguez: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee)

Pirates: Robert Stephenson: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Austin Hedges: 7 Day IL (Concussion)