Red Sox vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, April 5, 2023

April 5, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates (3-2) seek to complete a series sweep as they take a 2-0 lead into the finale versus the Boston Red Sox (2-3) at 1:35 PM ET on Wednesday from Fenway Park. The Red Sox are favored (-151) by oddsmakers to prevent the sweep and pick up their first win of the series.

Corey Kluber starts for Boston while Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh’s starter for the contest.

Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds

Red Sox odds to win: -151
Pirates odds to win: +128
Spread: Red Sox -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Wednesday, April 5, 2023
Time: 1:35 PM ET
TV: NESN

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Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Pirates?

Red Sox and Pirates Betting Trends (2022)

The Red Sox were the moneyline favorite 80 total times last season. They went 48-32 in those games.

When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -151 or shorter last year, Boston had a record of 18-12 (60%).

The Pirates were underdogs in 135 games last season and won 47 (34.8%) of those contests.

Last season, Pittsburgh won 35 of its 107 games, or 32.7%, when it was the underdog by at least +128 on the moneyline.

The Red Sox combined with their opponents to hit the over on the total 76 times last season for a 76-77-9 record against the over/under.

The Pirates and their opponents hit the over in 75 of their 162 games with a total last season.

Red Sox Stats & Insights (2022)

Last season the Red Sox scored the ninth-most runs in baseball (735 total, 4.5 per game).

Boston ranked 20th in the majors with 155 home runs last season. It averaged 1.0 per game.

The Red Sox had the third-best batting average in the league (.258).

The team’s 8.5 strikeouts per game ranked 14th in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Red Sox had a collective 8.5 K/9 last season, which ranked 19th in MLB.

Boston had the 25th-ranked team ERA across all MLB pitching staffs (4.54).

Pirates Stats & Insights (2022)

The Pirates scored 591 runs (just 3.6 per game) last season, which ranked 27th in MLB.

Pittsburgh’s 158 home runs ranked 18th in Major League Baseball.

The Pirates ranked 29th in MLB with a team batting average of just .222.

Pittsburgh was one of the least disciplined teams at the plate last season, ranking 28th with an average of 9.2 strikeouts per game.

The Pirates had a 7.9 K/9 last season as a pitching staff, which ranked 22nd in the majors.

Pittsburgh had the 26th-ranked ERA (4.66) in the majors last season.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch (2022)

Kluber (0-1) makes the start for the Red Sox, his second of the season.

Last season, Rafael Devers had a .295 batting average with 27 home runs and 88 RBI.

Alex Verdugo collected 166 hits, posted an OBP of .330, and a .405 SLG.

Justin Turner finished last season with 13 home runs, 81 RBI and a batting average of .278.

Raimel Tapia collected 109 hits, posted an OBP of .292 and a .380 SLG.

Pirates Key Players to Watch (2022)

Keller will take to the mound for the Pirates, his second start of the season.

Bryan Reynolds put up a batting average of .262, while hitting 27 home runs last season.

Andrew McCutchen was productive with 69 RBI while collecting 122 hits.

Carlos Santana hit .202 a season ago with 18 doubles, 19 home runs and 73 walks.

Ke’Bryan Hayes had 24 doubles, three triples, seven home runs and 48 walks while hitting .244.

Red Sox and Pirates Injuries

Red Sox: Brayan Bello: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 15 Day IL (Elbow), James Paxton: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Hip), Joely Rodriguez: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee)

Pirates: Robert Stephenson: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Austin Hedges: 7 Day IL (Concussion)