Guardians vs. Marlins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, April 21, 2023

April 20, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Cleveland Guardians (10-9) are favorites (-129) on the moneyline when they square off against the Miami Marlins (10-9) Friday at 7:10 PM ET, live on BSGL.

Zach Plesac takes the mound for Cleveland while Braxton Garrett is Miami’s starter for the contest.

Guardians vs. Marlins Odds

Guardians odds to win: -129
Marlins odds to win: +110
Spread: Guardians -1.5
Total: 7.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, April 21, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: BSGL

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Who Will Win Guardians vs. Marlins?

Guardians and Marlins Betting Trends

The Guardians have compiled a 6-6 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 50% of those games).

Cleveland has a 6-5 record (winning 54.5% of its games) when it has played as moneyline favorites of -129 or shorter.

This season, the Marlins have won five out of the 10 games in which they’ve been the underdog.

Miami has a record of 3-2 when it’s set as an underdog of +110 or more by bookmakers this season.

The Guardians have played in 19 games with an over/under set, and have combined with their opponents to go over the total nine times (9-9-1).

Games involving the Marlins have gone over the total set by bookmakers in six of 19 chances this season.

Guardians Stats & Insights

The Guardians have the No. 23 offense in MLB play scoring 4.2 runs per game (80 total runs).

Cleveland has hit the second-fewest home runs in baseball this season (10).

The Guardians rank 24th in the majors with a .231 batting average.

Cleveland’s hitters strike out 7.5 times per game, the third-fewest strikeouts in MLB.

The pitching staff for the Guardians has a collective 7.7 K/9, the fifth-worst in the majors.

Cleveland has a 3.92 team ERA that ranks 11th across all MLB pitching staffs.

Marlins Stats & Insights

The Marlins have scored the 28th-most runs in the league this season with just 59 (3.1 per game).

Miami has hit 18 homers this season, which ranks 20th in the majors.

The Marlins have a team batting average of .249 this season, which ranks 15th among MLB teams.

Miami ranks 17th with an average of 8.9 strikeouts per game.

The Marlins have an 8.5 K/9 this season as a pitching staff, which ranks 19th in the majors.

Miami pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.26 ERA this year, which ranks 16th in MLB.

Guardians Key Players to Watch

Plesac makes the start for the Guardians, his fourth of the season. He is 1-0 with a 6.92 ERA and eight strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings pitched.

Jose Ramirez leads Cleveland in home runs with two and runs batted in with 12.

Steven Kwan has 18 hits and an OBP of .367 to go with a slugging percentage of .301 this season.

Andres Gimenez has collected 20 base hits, an OBP of .358 and a slugging percentage of .389 this season.

Myles Straw leads Cleveland in batting average (.290) this season.

Marlins Key Players to Watch

The Marlins will send Garrett to the mound for his third start of the season.

Luis Arraez has racked up a team-high batting average of .438.

Jorge Soler has shown his power as he leads his team with five home runs and 10 RBI.

Garrett Cooper has a team-high 10 runs batted in.

Jazz Chisholm is hitting .235 with a double, a triple, three home runs and six walks.

Guardians and Marlins Injuries

Guardians: Aaron Civale: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Sam Hentges: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Triston McKenzie: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Cody Morris: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)

Marlins: Joey Wendle: 10 Day IL (Oblique), Trevor Rogers: 15 Day IL (Forearm ), Johnny Cueto: 15 Day IL (Biceps), JT Chargois: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Tommy Nance: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Max Meyer: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Anthony Bender: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Nic Enright: 60 Day IL (Illness)