Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, April 20, 2023

April 20, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Arizona Diamondbacks (11-8) will look to Pavin Smith, with homers in two straight games, to pull off an upset win over the San Diego Padres (9-11) Thursday at Chase Field. The Padres are -145 moneyline favorites for the game, which starts at 9:40 PM ET live on MLB Network.

San Diego’s Michael Wacha and Arizona’s Ryne Nelson have been named the starters for this contest.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Padres odds to win: -145
Diamondbacks odds to win: +123
Spread: Padres -1.5
Total: 10 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, April 20, 2023
Time: 9:40 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Padres vs. Diamondbacks?

Padres and Diamondbacks Betting Trends

The Padres have a 4-6 record in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 40% of those games).

San Diego has gone 3-6 (winning only 33.3% of its games) when playing as moneyline favorites of -145 or shorter.

The Diamondbacks have been underdogs in 17 games this season and won nine (52.9%) of those contests.

Arizona is 6-5 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +123 or more on the moneyline.

The Padres have played in 20 games with set over/under, and have combined with opponents to go over the total nine times (9-11-0).

Games involving the Diamondbacks have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 10 of 19 chances this season.

Padres Stats & Insights

The Padres have the No. 24 offense in baseball scoring 3.7 runs per game (73 total runs).

San Diego ranks eighth-best in MLB action with 23 total home runs.

The Padres are 28th in the majors with a .223 batting average.

San Diego strikes out 8.7 times per game, the No. 23 average in the majors.

The pitching staff for the Padres has a collective 8.7 K/9, which ranks 17th in the majors.

San Diego has a 4.14 team ERA that ranks 13th across all MLB pitching staffs.

Diamondbacks Stats & Insights

The Diamondbacks rank 12th in the majors with 88 total runs scored this season.

Arizona’s 17 home runs rank 23rd in Major League Baseball.

The Diamondbacks’ .259 batting average is among the best in baseball, ranking seventh in MLB.

Arizona has shown good bat-to-ball skills at the plate this season with the third-best strikeout rate (7.4 per game) among MLB offenses.

The Diamondbacks strike out 8.3 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 23rd in MLB.

Arizona pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.07 ERA this year, which ranks 22nd in MLB.

Padres Key Players to Watch

Wacha makes the start for the Padres, his fourth of the season. He is 2-1 with a 6.06 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings pitched.

Xander Bogaerts is batting .342 this season with four home runs, both best among San Diego hitters.

Juan Soto leads San Diego in home runs with four while driving in nine runs and slugging .418.

Jake Cronenworth has collected 14 base hits, an OBP of .316 and a slugging percentage of .431 this season.

Trent Grisham leads San Diego in home runs with four while driving in five runs and slugging .457.

Diamondbacks Key Players to Watch

Nelson (1-0) will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, his fourth start of the season.

Corbin Carroll has a team-high four home runs.

Ketel Marte is batting .261 with six doubles, a triple, two home runs and two walks.

Josh Rojas leads the Diamondbacks with a team-high batting average of .322.

Geraldo Perdomo is hitting .375 with four doubles, a home run and five walks.

Padres and Diamondbacks Injuries

Padres: Luis Campusano: 10 Day IL (Thumb sprain), David Dahl: 10 Day IL (Quadricep), Adam Engel: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Nabil Crismatt: 15 Day IL (Hip strain), Drew Pomeranz: 15 Day IL (Elbow/flexor), José Castillo: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Robert Suarez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Joe Musgrove: 15 Day IL (Toe), Adrian Morejon: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Eguy Rosario: 60 Day IL (Ankle)

Diamondbacks: Kyle Lewis: 10 Day IL (Illness), Carson Kelly: 10 Day IL (Forearm), Joe Mantiply: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Zach Davies: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Cole Sulser: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Mark Melancon: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Corbin Martin: 60 Day IL (Lat), Jose Herrera: day-to-day (Head)