Pirates vs. Reds Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, April 20, 2023

April 20, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-7), led by Andrew McCutchen on a two-game home run streak, are -166 favorites on the moneyline to defeat the Cincinnati Reds (7-11). First pitch is set for 6:35 PM ET Thursday, live from PNC Park and airing on SportsNet PT.

Roansy Contreras takes the mound for Pittsburgh while Luke Weaver is Cincinnati’s starter for the contest.

Pirates vs. Reds Odds

Pirates odds to win: -166
Reds odds to win: +140
Spread: Pirates -1.5
Total: 9.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, April 20, 2023
Time: 6:35 PM ET
TV: SportsNet PT

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Who Will Win Pirates vs. Reds?

Pirates and Reds Betting Trends

The Pirates have been the moneyline favorite only two other times so far this season, and they won both of the games.

Pittsburgh has not yet played a game with moneyline odds of -166 or shorter.

This season, the Reds have won four out of the 14 games, or 28.6%, in which they’ve been the underdog.

Cincinnati has a record of 1-6 in games where bookmakers have it as underdogs of at least +140 on the moneyline.

The Pirates have had an over/under set by oddsmakers 19 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in nine of those games (9-9-1).

The Reds’ games have gone over the total in 11 of their 18 chances.

Pirates Stats & Insights

The Pirates score the fourth-most runs in baseball (99 total, 5.2 per game).

Pittsburgh averages 1.3 home runs per game to rank sixth in MLB action with 25 total home runs.

The Pirates’ .257 batting average is eighth-best in MLB.

Pittsburgh strikes out 7.8 times per game, the seventh-best mark in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Pirates has a collective 8.4 K/9, which ranks 22nd in the majors.

Pittsburgh’s 4.10 team ERA ranks 12th across all MLB pitching staffs.

Reds Stats & Insights

The Reds have scored 82 runs (4.6 per game) this season, which ranks 19th in MLB.

Cincinnati has hit just 15 homers this season, which ranks 26th in the majors.

The Reds rank 18th in MLB with a .241 team batting average.

Cincinnati ranks 21st in strikeouts per game (9.5) among MLB offenses.

The Reds average the 11th-most strikeouts per nine innings (9.1) in the league this season.

Cincinnati pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.41 ERA this year, which ranks 26th in MLB.

Pirates Key Players to Watch

The Pirates will send Contreras (1-1) out to make his fourth start of the season. He is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings pitched.

Bryan Reynolds leads Pittsburgh in home runs with five and runs batted in with 17.

McCutchen’s batting average of .310 leads all Pittsburgh hitters this season.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has collected 16 base hits, an OBP of .288 and a slugging percentage of .361 this season.

Carlos Santana has collected 18 hits this season and has an OBP of .346. He’s slugging .435 on the year.

Reds Key Players to Watch

The Reds will send out Weaver for his first start of the season.

Jonathan India has six doubles, a home run and 11 walks while batting .290.

Spencer Steer is batting .320 to pace his team.

TJ Friedl is batting .306 with four doubles, a triple, two home runs and seven walks.

Jake Fraley has made the most of his opportunities as he leads his team with 10 runs batted in.

Pirates and Reds Injuries

Pirates: Ji-Man Choi: 10 Day IL (Achilles), Rob Zastryzny: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Chase De Jong: 15 Day IL (Knee), Oneil Cruz: 60 Day IL (Ankle), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow)

Reds: Joey Votto: 10 Day IL (Bicep/shoulder), Connor Overton: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Tony Santillan: 15 Day IL (Back), Vladimir Gutierrez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Tejay Antone: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Justin Dunn: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Hunter Greene: day-to-day (Shin)