Brewers vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Saturday, April 22, 2023

April 22, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Boston Red Sox (11-10) will look to Alex Verdugo, with homers in two straight games, to pull off an upset win over the Milwaukee Brewers (14-6) Saturday at American Family Field. The Brewers are -129 moneyline favorites for the game, which starts at 7:10 PM ET live on BSWIX.

Wade Miley will get the ball for Milwaukee while Boston will counter with Garrett Whitlock.

Brewers vs. Red Sox Odds

Brewers odds to win: -129
Red Sox odds to win: +110
Spread: Brewers -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Saturday, April 22, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: BSWIX

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Who Will Win Brewers vs. Red Sox?

Brewers and Red Sox Betting Trends

The Brewers have won 77.8% of the games this season when they were favored on the moneyline (7-2).

When it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -129 or shorter, Milwaukee has a 4-2 record (winning 66.7% of its games).

This season, the Red Sox have been the underdog 10 times and won four of those games.

Boston has a record of 1-6 in games where sportsbooks have it as underdogs of at least +110 on the moneyline.

The Brewers have had an over/under set by bookmakers 20 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in nine of those games (9-11-0).

The Red Sox and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 14 of their 21 opportunities.

Brewers Stats & Insights

The Brewers have the No. 12 offense in MLB action scoring 4.9 runs per game (98 total runs).

Milwaukee is 10th in MLB play with 24 home runs. They average 1.2 per game.

The Brewers’ .256 batting average is eighth-best in the majors.

Milwaukee’s batters strike out 9.7 times per game, the 26th-most in the majors.

The 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings compiled by the Brewers pitching staff ranks 28th in MLB.

Milwaukee has a 3.07 team ERA that ranks third across all MLB pitching staffs.

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox have scored 116 runs this season, which ranks second in MLB.

Boston’s 25 home runs rank eighth in Major League Baseball.

The Red Sox have a team batting average of .247 this season, which ranks 15th among MLB teams.

Boston is one of the best teams in baseball at making contact this season, ranking 10th with an average of eight strikeouts per game.

The Red Sox average 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings as a pitching staff, fourth-most in the league.

Boston has pitched to a 5.08 ERA this season, which ranks 25th in baseball.

Brewers Key Players to Watch

Miley (2-1) gets the starting nod for the Brewers in his fourth start of the season. He’s put together a 1.50 ERA in 18 2/3 innings pitched, with 14 strikeouts.

Willy Adames is batting .253 with four home runs and 12 RBI for Milwaukee this season.

Rowdy Tellez leads Milwaukee in home runs with six and runs batted in with 15.

Brian Anderson leads Milwaukee in RBI with 15 while batting .261 with three home runs.

Christian Yelich has collected 19 hits this season and has an OBP of .319. He’s slugging .370 on the year.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

The Red Sox will send Whitlock to the mound for his third start of the season.

Verdugo paces the Red Sox with a team-high batting average of .341.

Rafael Devers’ seven home runs and 18 RBI both pace his team.

Kike Hernandez has four doubles, three home runs and nine walks while batting .233.

Justin Turner is batting .260 with four doubles, a home run and 10 walks.

Brewers and Red Sox Injuries

Brewers: Luis Urías: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Garrett Mitchell: 10 Day IL (Shoulder), Tyrone Taylor: 10 Day IL (Elbow), Brandon Woodruff: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Gus Varland: 15 Day IL (Hand), Adrian Houser: 15 Day IL (Groin), Jason Alexander: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Justin Wilson: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Aaron Ashby: 60 Day IL (Labrum), Corbin Burnes: day-to-day (Pectoral)

Red Sox: Adam Duvall: 10 Day IL (Wrist), Chris Martin: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), James Paxton: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Joely Rodriguez: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee), Christian Arroyo: day-to-day (Hamstring)