Braves vs. Astros Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, April 23, 2023

April 23, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Houston Astros (11-10) will look to Yordan Alvarez, with homers in two straight games, to pull off an upset win over the Atlanta Braves (14-7) Sunday at Truist Park. The Braves are -129 moneyline favorites for the game, which starts at 1:35 PM ET live on MLB Network.

Max Fried takes the mound for Atlanta while Cristian Javier is Houston’s starter for the contest.

Braves vs. Astros Odds

Braves odds to win: -129
Astros odds to win: +109
Spread: Braves -1.5
Total: 8 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, April 23, 2023
Time: 1:35 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Braves vs. Astros?

Braves and Astros Betting Trends

The Braves have put together a 12-7 record in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 63.2% of those games).

Atlanta has gone 11-2 when it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -129 or shorter (84.6% winning percentage).

This season, the Astros have won four out of the six games in which they’ve been the underdog.

Houston has played as an underdog of +109 or more once this season and lost that game.

The Braves have played in 21 games with set over/under, and have combined with opponents to go over the total 12 times (12-8-1).

Games involving the Astros have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 14 of 21 chances this season.

Braves Stats & Insights

The Braves rank 11th in runs scored with 104, 5.0 per game.

Atlanta ranks fourth in baseball with 29 home runs. They average 1.4 per game.

The Braves’ .259 batting average is seventh-best in the majors.

Atlanta strikes out 9.6 times per game, the No. 24 average in MLB.

The 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings put together by the Braves pitching staff ranks 12th in the majors.

Atlanta has the sixth-ranked team ERA among all MLB pitching staffs (3.40).

Astros Stats & Insights

The Astros have scored the seventh-most runs in the league this season with 108.

Houston’s 22 home runs rank 19th in Major League Baseball.

The Astros rank 11th in MLB with a .254 team batting average.

Houston is one of the best teams in baseball at making contact this season, ranking ninth with an average of 8.3 strikeouts per game.

The Astros strike out 9.7 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, fourth-best in MLB.

Houston pitchers have a combined ERA of 3.33 ERA this year, fifth-best in baseball.

Braves Key Players to Watch

Fried (1-0) pitches for the Braves to make his third start of the season.

Ronald Acuna Jr. leads Atlanta in batting average (.375) this season while adding three home runs and 11 RBI.

Matt Olson leads Atlanta in home runs (six) and runs batted in (20) this season while batting .265.

Sean Murphy is slashing .250/.416/.617 this season for the Braves.

Ozzie Albies has collected 21 hits this season and has an OBP of .284. He’s slugging .458 on the year.

Astros Key Players to Watch

The Astros will send Javier (2-0) to the mound for his fifth start this season.

Kyle Tucker is hitting .288 with three doubles, five home runs and 16 walks.

Alvarez has shown off his power as he paces his team with six home runs and 25 RBI.

Alex Bregman is hitting .232 with three doubles, two home runs and 15 walks.

Jeremy Pena is hitting .226 with six doubles, three home runs and four walks.

Braves and Astros Injuries

Braves: Michael Harris II: 10 Day IL (Back), Orlando Arcia: 10 Day IL (Wrist), Lucas Luetge: 15 Day IL (Biceps), Collin McHugh: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Raisel Iglesias: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Huascar Ynoa: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Kolby Allard: 60 Day IL (Oblique), Tyler Matzek: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Travis d’Arnaud: 7 Day IL (Concussion)

Astros: Jose Altuve: 10 Day IL (Thumb), Michael Brantley: 10 Day IL (Shoulder), Lance McCullers Jr.: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Parker Mushinski: 15 Day IL (Spine), Chas McCormick: day-to-day (Eye)