Astros vs. Phillies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, April 28, 2023

April 27, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

Mauricio Dubon will look to extend his 20-game hitting streak when the Houston Astros (14-11) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (13-13). The Astros are listed as -145 favorites on the moneyline for the contest, which starts at 8:10 PM ET on Friday, live on Apple TV+ from Minute Maid Park.

Houston’s Framber Valdez and Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola have been named the starters for this contest.

Astros vs. Phillies Odds

Astros odds to win: -145
Phillies odds to win: +125
Spread: Astros -1.5
Total: 7.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, April 28, 2023
Time: 8:10 PM ET
TV: Apple TV+

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Who Will Win Astros vs. Phillies?

Astros and Phillies Betting Trends

The Astros are 7-8 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 46.7% of those games).

Houston has gone 5-6 (winning 45.5% of its games) when it has played as moneyline favorites of -145 or shorter.

The Phillies have won three of the nine games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Philadelphia has a record of 1-2 in games where bookmakers have it as underdogs of at least +125 on the moneyline.

The Astros have combined with opponents to hit the over on the total 15 times this season for a 15-9-1 record against the over/under.

The Phillies and their opponents have hit the over in 12 of their 26 games with a total this season.

Astros Stats & Insights

The Astros score the 10th-most runs in baseball (122 total, 4.9 per game).

Houston is 22nd in MLB action with 24 total home runs.

The Astros rank 13th in the majors with a .251 batting average.

Houston strikes out 8.2 times per game, the eighth-fewest mark in the majors.

The Astros pitching staff ranks third in MLB with a collective 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

Houston has a 3.17 team ERA that ranks second across all MLB pitching staffs.

Phillies Stats & Insights

The Phillies rank 17th in the majors with 114 total runs scored this season.

Philadelphia’s 28 home runs rank 17th in Major League Baseball.

The Phillies rank third in MLB with a .275 team batting average.

Philadelphia ranks 25th in strikeouts per game (9.2) among MLB offenses.

The Phillies have a 9.4 K/9 this season as a pitching staff, seventh-best in baseball.

Philadelphia pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.60 ERA this year, which ranks 21st in MLB.

Astros Key Players to Watch

Valdez (2-2) gets the starting nod for the Astros in his sixth start of the season. He has a 2.25 ERA in 32 2/3 innings pitched, with 34 strikeouts.

Kyle Tucker has been key for Houston with 26 hits, an OBP of .421 plus a slugging percentage of .512.

Alex Bregman is batting .229 with an OBP of .362 and a slugging percentage of .365 this season.

Yordan Alvarez leads Houston in home runs (six) and runs batted in (27) this season while batting .253.

Jeremy Pena has collected 24 hits this season and has an OBP of .303. He’s slugging .430 on the year.

Phillies Key Players to Watch

The Phillies’ Nola (1-2) will make his sixth start of the season.

Nicholas Castellanos is hitting .333 with 10 doubles, three home runs and 10 walks.

Brandon Marsh is batting .338 with six doubles, four triples, four home runs and 11 walks.

Alec Bohm has driven in a team-best 20 runs batted in.

Bryson Stott is batting .339 to lead his team.

Astros and Phillies Injuries

Astros: Chas McCormick: 10 Day IL (Back), Jose Altuve: 10 Day IL (Thumb), Michael Brantley: 10 Day IL (Shoulder), Lance McCullers Jr.: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Parker Mushinski: 15 Day IL (Spine), Yordan Alvarez: day-to-day (Neck)

Phillies: Darick Hall: 10 Day IL (Thumb), Bryce Harper: 10 Day IL (Elbow), Andrew Bellatti: 15 Day IL (Tricep), Nick Nelson: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Noah Song: 15 Day IL (Back), Ranger Suárez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Rafael Marchan: 60 Day IL (Hand), Rhys Hoskins: 60 Day IL (Acl), Taijuan Walker: day-to-day (Forearm)