Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, April 27, 2023

April 27, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers (13-12) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-8) Thursday to close out a three-game series. The Dodgers are favored (-168) to win the rubber match, which starts at 12:35 PM ET from PNC Park.

Julio Urias takes the mound for Los Angeles while Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh’s starter for the contest.

Dodgers vs. Pirates Odds

Dodgers odds to win: -168
Pirates odds to win: +142
Spread: Dodgers -1.5
Total: 7.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, April 27, 2023
Time: 12:35 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Dodgers vs. Pirates?

Dodgers and Pirates Betting Trends

The Dodgers have gone 12-11 in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 52.2% of those games).

Los Angeles has a record of 4-4 when playing as moneyline favorites with odds of -168 or shorter (50% winning percentage).

The Pirates have won 12, or 60%, of the 20 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Pittsburgh has a record of 3-1 in games where bookmakers have it as underdogs of at least +142 on the moneyline.

The Dodgers have combined with opponents to go over the total 14 times this season for a 14-10-1 record against the over/under.

The Pirates and their opponents have hit the over in 11 of their 25 games with a total this season.

Dodgers Stats & Insights

The Dodgers have the No. 5 offense in MLB action scoring 5.2 runs per game (130 total runs).

Los Angeles ranks second in MLB play with 45 home runs. They average 1.8 per game.

The Dodgers’ .227 batting average ranks 25th in the majors.

Los Angeles’ 9.5 strikeouts per game are the fifth-most in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Dodgers has a collective 8.3 K/9, which ranks 24th in MLB.

Los Angeles’ 4.64 team ERA ranks 21st among all MLB pitching staffs.

Pirates Stats & Insights

The Pirates have scored the eighth-most runs in the league this season with 126.

Pittsburgh’s 28 home runs rank 14th in Major League Baseball.

The Pirates rank ninth in MLB with a .257 team batting average.

Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in baseball at making contact this season, ranking sixth with an average of 7.9 strikeouts per game.

The Pirates average the 17th-most strikeouts per nine innings (8.8) in the league this season.

Pittsburgh pitchers have a combined ERA of 3.67 ERA this year, eighth-best in baseball.

Dodgers Key Players to Watch

Urias gets the start for the Dodgers, his sixth of the season. He is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings pitched.

James Outman leads Los Angeles with a .301 batting average. He’s also hit seven homers and has 19 RBI.

Freddie Freeman has collected 29 hits this season and has an OBP of .384. He’s slugging .474 on the year.

Mookie Betts has collected 21 base hits, an OBP of .353 and a slugging percentage of .425 this season.

J.D. Martinez is batting .250 with an OBP of .306 and a slugging percentage of .534 this season.

Pirates Key Players to Watch

The Pirates will hand the ball to Keller (2-0) for his sixth start of the season.

Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates in home runs (five), runs batted in (19) and has put up a team-high batting average of .292.

Andrew McCutchen has put his power on display as he paces his team with five home runs.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is hitting .229 with seven doubles, two triples, a home run and nine walks.

Carlos Santana is hitting .261 with eight doubles, two home runs and 11 walks.

Dodgers and Pirates Injuries

Dodgers: Miguel Rojas: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Michael Grove: 15 Day IL (Groin), Jimmy Nelson: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Ryan Pepiot: 60 Day IL (Oblique), Daniel Hudson: 60 Day IL (Knee), Walker Buehler: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Álex Reyes: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), J.P. Feyereisen: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Blake Treinen: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Gavin Lux: 60 Day IL (Knee), Will Smith: 7 Day IL (Concussion)

Pirates: Rob Zastryzny: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Chase De Jong: 15 Day IL (Knee), Wil Crowe: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Oneil Cruz: 60 Day IL (Ankle), Ji-Man Choi: 60 Day IL (Achilles), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow)