Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, April 28, 2023

April 27, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Cleveland Guardians (12-13) visit the Boston Red Sox (13-13) on Friday to begin a three-game series, with the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park. The Guardians are listed as -125 favorites, while the underdog Red Sox have +106 odds on the moneyline.

Shane Bieber will get the ball for Cleveland while Boston will counter with Nick Pivetta.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds

Guardians odds to win: -125
Red Sox odds to win: +106
Spread: Guardians -1.5
Total: 9 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, April 28, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: NESN

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Who Will Win Guardians vs. Red Sox?

Guardians and Red Sox Betting Trends

The Guardians have been the moneyline favorite 17 total times this season. They’ve finished 8-9 in those games.

When playing as moneyline favorites with odds of -125 or shorter, Cleveland has a 7-8 record (winning 46.7% of its games).

This season, the Red Sox have won six out of the 14 games, or 42.9%, in which they’ve been the underdog.

Boston has a record of 3-8, a 27.3% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +106 or more by sportsbooks this season.

The Guardians have had an over/under set by oddsmakers 24 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in 10 of those games (10-13-1).

So far this season, the Red Sox and their opponents have hit the over in 18 of their 26 games with a total.

Guardians Stats & Insights

The Guardians score the fifth-fewest runs in baseball (95 total, 3.8 per game).

Cleveland has hit 13 home runs this season, the lowest total in MLB action.

The Guardians rank 23rd in the majors with a .231 batting average.

Cleveland’s hitters strike out 7.4 times per game, the second-fewest strikeouts in MLB.

The pitching staff for the Guardians has a collective 7.8 K/9, the fourth-worst in the majors.

Cleveland has the 11th-ranked team ERA across all MLB pitching staffs (3.98).

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox are among the highest scoring teams in the majors, ranking third with 146 total runs this season.

Boston has hit 34 homers this season, which ranks sixth in the majors.

The Red Sox have a team batting average of .252 this season, which ranks 11th among MLB teams.

Boston has shown good bat-to-ball skills at the plate this season with the 10th-best strikeout rate (eight per game) among MLB offenses.

The Red Sox strike out 8.7 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 18th in MLB.

Boston pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.13 ERA this year, which ranks 27th in MLB.

Guardians Key Players to Watch

Bieber gets the start for the Guardians, his sixth of the season. He is 1-1 with a 3.23 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings pitched.

Jose Ramirez leads Cleveland in batting average (.271), home runs (three) and runs batted in (16) this season.

Steven Kwan has 25 hits and an OBP of .368 to go with a slugging percentage of .309 this season.

Andres Gimenez is slashing .253/.343/.356 this season for the Guardians.

Myles Straw has collected 21 hits this season and has an OBP of .344. He’s slugging .300 on the year.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

The Red Sox’s Pivetta (1-1) will make his fifth start of the season.

Rafael Devers paces the Red Sox with nine home runs and 24 runs batted in.

Alex Verdugo’s .311 batting average paces his team.

Masataka Yoshida has two doubles, four home runs and 10 walks while batting .276.

Justin Turner has five doubles, two home runs and 13 walks while batting .274.

Guardians and Red Sox Injuries

Guardians: Aaron Civale: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Sam Hentges: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Triston McKenzie: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Cody Morris: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)

Red Sox: Yu Chang: 10 Day IL (Hand), Adam Duvall: 10 Day IL (Wrist), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Chris Martin: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), James Paxton: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Joely Rodriguez: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee), Christian Arroyo: day-to-day (Hamstring)