Mets vs. Nationals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, April 27, 2023

April 27, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The New York Mets (14-11) will be out to avoid the sweep when they host the Washington Nationals (9-14) to complete a three-game series. Sportsbooks have listed the Mets as -238 favorites for the series finale, while the Nationals are +196 underdogs.

New York’s Joey Lucchesi gets the start, and he’ll go against Washington’s Trevor Williams.

Mets vs. Nationals Odds

Mets odds to win: -238
Nationals odds to win: +196
Spread: Mets -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, April 27, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: SNY

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Who Will Win Mets vs. Nationals?

Mets and Nationals Betting Trends

The Mets are 11-7 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 61.1% of those games).

New York has not yet played a game with moneyline odds of -238 or shorter.

The Nationals have won nine, or 39.1%, of the 23 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Washington is 2-5 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +196 or more on the moneyline.

The Mets have played in 25 games with over/under set, and have combined with opponents to go over the total 10 times (10-14-1).

So far this season, the Nationals and their opponents have hit the over in nine of their 23 games with a total.

Mets Stats & Insights

The Mets are the 15th-highest scoring team in MLB play averaging 4.5 runs per game (113 total).

New York averages one home run per game to rank 19th in MLB action with 26 total home runs .

The Mets are 20th in the majors with a .234 batting average.

New York strikes out 7.8 times per game, the fourth-fewest average in baseball.

The 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings put together by the Mets pitching staff ranks 17th in MLB.

New York’s 4.19 team ERA ranks 15th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Nationals Stats & Insights

The Nationals are among the lowest scoring teams in the league, ranking 27th with just 85 total runs (3.7 per game) this season.

Washington ranks last in Major League Baseball with just 12 home runs as a team.

The Nationals have a team batting average of .250 this season, which ranks 13th among MLB teams.

Washington is the best at avoiding strikeouts in MLB this season with only 163 as a team.

The Nationals average just 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings as a pitching staff, which ranks 27th in the league.

Washington has pitched to a 3.92 ERA this season, which ranks 11th in baseball.

Mets Key Players to Watch

Lucchesi (1-0) gets the start for the Mets, his second of the season.

Pete Alonso leads New York in home runs with 10 and runs batted in with 23.

Brandon Nimmo’s batting average of .337 leads all New York hitters this season.

Francisco Lindor has 20 hits this season and a slash line of .213/.318/.436.

Jeff McNeil has 26 hits and an OBP of .415 to go with a slugging percentage of .398 this season.

Nationals Key Players to Watch

The Nationals will send Williams (1-1) to the mound for his fifth start this season.

Keibert Ruiz has racked up a team-best batting average of .299.

Jeimer Candelario’s four home runs and 12 runs batted in both lead his team.

Victor Robles has three doubles, a triple and eight walks while batting .279.

Alex Call has a double, a home run and 14 walks while hitting .224.

Mets and Nationals Injuries

Mets: Omar Narváez: 10 Day IL (Calf), Tim Locastro: 10 Day IL (Back spasms), Justin Verlander: 15 Day IL (Teres major), Stephen Nogosek: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Edwin Uceta: 15 Day IL (Left ankle), Carlos Carrasco: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Stephen Ridings: 15 Day IL (Lat), Elieser Hernandez: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Sam Coonrod: 60 Day IL (Lat), Bryce Montes de Oca: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Edwin Díaz: 60 Day IL (Knee), José Quintana: 60 Day IL (Rib)

Nationals: Corey Dickerson: 10 Day IL (Calf), Ildemaro Vargas: 10 Day IL (Shoulder), Israel Pineda: 10 Day IL (Finger), Carter Kieboom: 10 Day IL (Finger), Stephen Strasburg: 60 Day IL (Ribs/shoulder), Tanner Rainey: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Cade Cavalli: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Victor Arano: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)