Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Saturday, April 29, 2023

April 29, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Boston Red Sox (13-14) are set to take on the Cleveland Guardians (13-13) Saturday at 4:10 PM ET, airing on NESN. The Red Sox are listed as -125 favorites by sportsbooks, while the underdog Guardians have +105 odds for the contest.

Boston’s Brayan Bello gets the start, and he’ll go against Cleveland’s Zach Plesac.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds

Red Sox odds to win: -125
Guardians odds to win: +105
Spread: Red Sox -1.5
Total: 9 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Saturday, April 29, 2023
Time: 4:10 PM ET
TV: NESN

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Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Guardians?

Red Sox and Guardians Betting Trends

The Red Sox have won seven of the 12 games they were the moneyline favorite this season (58.3%).

When it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -125 or shorter, Boston has a 4-3 record (winning 57.1% of its games).

The Guardians have entered the game as underdogs seven times this season and won four of those games.

Cleveland is 3-1 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +105 or more on the moneyline.

The Red Sox have played in 27 games with set over/under, and have combined with opponents to go over the total 18 times (18-9-0).

The Guardians and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 10 of their 25 opportunities.

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox score the third-most runs in baseball (148 total, 5.5 per game).

Boston ranks seventh in MLB play with 34 home runs. They average 1.3 per game.

The Red Sox’s .251 batting average ranks 12th in MLB.

Boston’s batters strike out 7.9 times per game, the ninth-lowest average in baseball.

The 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings put together by the Red Sox pitching staff ranks 18th in MLB.

Boston’s 5.13 team ERA ranks 26th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Guardians Stats & Insights

The Guardians have scored 100 runs (3.8 per game) this season, which ranks 24th in MLB.

Cleveland ranks 29th in Major League Baseball with just 15 home runs as a team.

The Guardians’ .231 batting average ranks 22nd in the league this season.

Cleveland ranks second in MLB in strikeouts per game with an average of 7.4 Ks per contest.

The Guardians average just 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings as a pitching staff, which ranks 27th in the league.

Cleveland has pitched to a 3.90 ERA this season, which ranks 11th in baseball.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

Bello (0-1) starts for the Red Sox, his third this season.

Rafael Devers leads Boston in home runs (nine) and runs batted in (24) this season while batting .231.

Alex Verdugo’s batting average of .299 leads all Boston hitters this season.

Masataka Yoshida is slashing .275/.366/.463 this season for the Red Sox.

Justin Turner has collected 27 hits this season and has an OBP of .376. He’s slugging .384 on the year.

Guardians Key Players to Watch

Plesac (1-1) will take to the mound for the Guardians and make his fifth start of the season.

Jose Ramirez paces the Guardians in home runs (three), runs batted in (16) and has a team-high batting average of .273.

Steven Kwan has three doubles, a triple and 18 walks while hitting .265.

Andres Gimenez has seven doubles, a home run and eight walks while batting .253.

Josh Bell is hitting .215 with nine doubles, two home runs and 16 walks.

Red Sox and Guardians Injuries

Red Sox: Adam Duvall: 10 Day IL (Wrist), Yu Chang: 10 Day IL (Hand), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Chris Martin: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), James Paxton: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Joely Rodriguez: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee)

Guardians: Aaron Civale: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Sam Hentges: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Triston McKenzie: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Cody Morris: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)