Astros vs. Phillies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, April 30, 2023

April 30, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Houston Astros (14-13), led by Jeremy Pena on a two-game home run streak, are -149 favorites on the moneyline to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (15-13). First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET Sunday, live from Minute Maid Park and airing on ESPN.

Jose Urquidy gets the starting nod for Houston while Bailey Falter is Philadelphia’s starter for the contest.

Astros vs. Phillies Odds

Astros odds to win: -149
Phillies odds to win: +127
Spread: Astros -1.5
Total: 9 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, April 30, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: ESPN

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Who Will Win Astros vs. Phillies?

Astros and Phillies Betting Trends

The Astros have been the moneyline favorite 17 total times this season. They’ve finished 7-10 in those games.

In games it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -149 or shorter, Houston has gone 5-5 (50%).

The Phillies have won five, or 45.5%, of the 11 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Philadelphia has entered three games this season as the underdog by +127 or more and is 1-2 in those contests.

The Astros have played in 27 games with an over/under set, and have combined with their opponents to go over the total 15 times (15-11-1).

The Phillies’ games have gone over the total in 12 of their 28 chances.

Astros Stats & Insights

The Astros have the No. 14 offense in MLB action scoring 4.6 runs per game (124 total runs).

Houston averages one home run per game to rank 21st in MLB play with 26 total home runs .

The Astros’ .244 batting average ranks 16th in MLB.

Houston strikes out 8.3 times per game, the ninth-fewest average in the majors.

The pitching staff for the Astros has a collective 9.7 K/9, the fifth-best in MLB.

Houston’s 3.27 team ERA ranks second across all MLB pitching staffs.

Phillies Stats & Insights

The Phillies rank 15th in the majors with 123 total runs scored this season.

Philadelphia ranks 16th in Major League Baseball with 31 home runs.

The Phillies have a team batting average of .276 this season, which ranks second among MLB teams.

Philadelphia ranks 21st in strikeouts per game (9.2) among MLB offenses.

The Phillies strike out 9.4 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 10th-best in MLB.

Philadelphia has pitched to a 4.33 ERA this season, which ranks 16th in baseball.

Astros Key Players to Watch

Urquidy gets the start for the Astros, his sixth of the season. He is 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings pitched.

Kyle Tucker has been key for Houston with five home runs, 19 RBI and a batting average of .277 this season.

Yordan Alvarez is batting .269 this season with a team-high six home runs and 27 RBI.

Pena’s six home runs lead all Houston hitters, and he’s slugging .472.

Alex Bregman is batting .214 with an OBP of .341 and a slugging percentage of .340 this season.

Phillies Key Players to Watch

The Phillies will send Falter (0-4) to the mound for his sixth start this season.

Nicholas Castellanos is hitting .324 with 10 doubles, four home runs and 10 walks.

Brandon Marsh is hitting .341 to pace his team.

Alec Bohm has accumulated a team-high 21 runs batted in.

Bryson Stott is hitting .322 with seven doubles, two home runs and five walks.

Astros and Phillies Injuries

Astros: Chas McCormick: 10 Day IL (Back), Jose Altuve: 10 Day IL (Thumb), Michael Brantley: 10 Day IL (Shoulder), Lance McCullers Jr.: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Parker Mushinski: 15 Day IL (Spine)

Phillies: Cristian Pache: 10 Day IL (Knee), Darick Hall: 10 Day IL (Thumb), Bryce Harper: 10 Day IL (Elbow), Andrew Bellatti: 15 Day IL (Tricep), Nick Nelson: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Noah Song: 15 Day IL (Back), Ranger Suárez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Rafael Marchan: 60 Day IL (Hand), Rhys Hoskins: 60 Day IL (Acl), Taijuan Walker: day-to-day (Forearm)