Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, April 30, 2023

April 30, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Boston Red Sox (14-14) are -125 favorites to take Game 3 of th series from the Cleveland Guardians (13-14) Sunday at 1:35 PM ET. The teams enter the matchup with the series record tied, and the underdog Guardians are listed with +106 odds to win the rubber match and take the series victory.

Chris Sale gets the starting nod for Boston while Logan Allen is Cleveland’s starter for the contest.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds

Red Sox odds to win: -125
Guardians odds to win: +106
Spread: Red Sox -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, April 30, 2023
Time: 1:35 PM ET
TV: NESN

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Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Guardians?

Red Sox and Guardians Betting Trends

The Red Sox have been favored on the moneyline 13 total times this season. They’ve gone 8-5 in those games.

Boston has gone 4-3 (winning 57.1% of its games) when playing as moneyline favorites of -125 or shorter.

The Guardians have been underdogs in eight games this season and won four (50%) of those contests.

This season, Cleveland has won three of its four games when it’s the underdog by at least +106 on the moneyline.

The Red Sox have had an over/under set by oddsmakers 28 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in 19 of those games (19-9-0).

Games involving the Guardians have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 11 of 26 chances this season.

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox are the third-highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 5.6 runs per game (156 total).

Boston ranks eighth-best in MLB action with 35 total home runs.

The Red Sox’s .257 batting average is seventh-best in the majors.

Boston strikes out 7.8 times per game to rank seventh in baseball.

The Red Sox pitching staff ranks 20th in MLB with a collective 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

Boston’s 5.14 team ERA ranks 26th across all MLB pitching staffs.

Guardians Stats & Insights

The Guardians rank 24th in the majors with 107 total runs scored this season.

Cleveland ranks 29th in Major League Baseball with just 17 home runs as a team.

The Guardians rank 21st in MLB with a .236 team batting average.

Cleveland is one of the best teams in baseball at making contact this season, ranking second with an average of 7.5 strikeouts per game.

The Guardians have a 7.5 K/9 this season as a pitching staff, which ranks 29th in baseball.

Cleveland has the 12th-ranked ERA (3.94) in the majors this season.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

The Red Sox will send Sale (1-2) to the mound for his sixth start of the season. He is 1-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 30 strikeouts through 23 2/3 innings pitched.

Rafael Devers leads Boston in home runs (10) and runs batted in (27) this season while batting .239.

Alex Verdugo leads Boston in batting with a .301 average while slugging three homers and driving in 14 runs.

Masataka Yoshida has collected 23 base hits, an OBP of .367 and a slugging percentage of .452 this season.

Justin Turner has collected 28 hits this season and has an OBP of .369. He’s slugging .375 on the year.

Guardians Key Players to Watch

The Guardians will send Allen to the mound for his second start of the season.

Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians with three home runs and 17 runs batted in, while putting up a team-high batting average of .291.

Steven Kwan has three doubles, a triple and 19 walks while hitting .280.

Andres Gimenez has seven doubles, two home runs and eight walks while batting .250.

Myles Straw is hitting .276 with three doubles and 11 walks.

Red Sox and Guardians Injuries

Red Sox: Yu Chang: 10 Day IL (Hand), Adam Duvall: 10 Day IL (Wrist), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Elbow), James Paxton: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Joely Rodriguez: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee), Kenley Jansen: day-to-day (Back), Kiké Hernández: day-to-day (Ankle)

Guardians: Aaron Civale: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Sam Hentges: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Triston McKenzie: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Cody Morris: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)