Padres vs. Reds Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 3, 2023

May 3, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The San Diego Padres (16-15) host the Cincinnati Reds (13-17) Wednesday to close out a three-game series. The Padres are favored (-262) to win the rubber match, which starts at 4:10 PM ET from PETCO Park.

Seth Lugo will get the ball for San Diego while Cincinnati will counter with Luis Cessa.

Padres vs. Reds Odds

Padres odds to win: -262
Reds odds to win: +218
Spread: Padres -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Wednesday, May 3, 2023
Time: 4:10 PM ET
TV: BSSD

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Who Will Win Padres vs. Reds?

Padres and Reds Betting Trends

The Padres have won 52.6% of the games this season when they were the moneyline favorite (10-9).

San Diego has never played a game this season with moneyline odds of -262 or shorter.

This season, the Reds have been the underdog 22 times and won eight, or 36.4%, of those games.

Cincinnati has played as an underdog of +218 or more twice this season and lost both games.

The Padres have played in 31 games with set over/under, and have combined with opponents to go over the total 13 times (13-16-2).

The Reds and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 16 of their 30 opportunities.

Padres Stats & Insights

The Padres have the No. 17 offense in baseball scoring 4.2 runs per game (130 total runs).

San Diego averages 1.2 home runs per game to rank 11th in MLB action with 36 total home runs .

The Padres are 22nd in MLB with a .233 batting average.

San Diego strikes out 8.9 times per game, the No. 21 average in MLB.

The 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings compiled by the Padres pitching staff ranks 21st in MLB.

San Diego has the 17th-ranked team ERA among all MLB pitching staffs (4.48).

Reds Stats & Insights

The Reds have scored the 17th-most runs in the league this season with 130 (4.3 per game).

Cincinnati’s 20 home runs rank 27th in MLB this season.

The Reds rank 16th in MLB with a .245 team batting average.

Cincinnati ranks 21st with an average of 9.2 strikeouts per game.

The Reds average 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings as a pitching staff, third-most in the league.

Cincinnati has pitched to a 4.89 ERA this season, which ranks 24th in baseball.

Padres Key Players to Watch

Lugo gets the start for the Padres, his sixth of the season. He is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings pitched.

Xander Bogaerts leads San Diego in batting average (.304) and home runs (six) this season, while also chipping in with 13 RBI.

Juan Soto has 24 hits and an OBP of .396 to go with a slugging percentage of .417 this season.

Jake Cronenworth is slashing .229/.301/.422 this season for the Padres.

Trent Grisham has collected 22 hits this season and has an OBP of .336. He’s slugging .436 on the year.

Reds Key Players to Watch

Cessa (1-3) will take to the mound for the Reds and make his sixth start of the season.

Jonathan India has eight doubles, a home run and 16 walks while batting .273.

Jake Fraley has totaled 17 runs batted in to pace his team.

Nick Senzel has a team-best three homers.

TJ Friedl has a club-leading .313 batting average.

Padres and Reds Injuries

Padres: David Dahl: 10 Day IL (Quadricep), Luis Campusano: 10 Day IL (Thumb sprain), Adam Engel: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Nabil Crismatt: 15 Day IL (Hip strain), Drew Pomeranz: 15 Day IL (Elbow/flexor), José Castillo: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Robert Suarez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adrian Morejon: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Eguy Rosario: 60 Day IL (Ankle)

Reds: Wil Myers: 10 Day IL (Undisclosed), Joey Votto: 10 Day IL (Bicep/shoulder), Fernando Cruz: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Connor Overton: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Tony Santillan: 60 Day IL (Back), Vladimir Gutierrez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Tejay Antone: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Justin Dunn: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)