Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, May 4, 2023

May 4, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

Led by Daulton Varsho (two-game homer streak), the Toronto Blue Jays (18-13) are favorites versus the Boston Red Sox (18-14) Thursday at 6:10 PM ET. Sportsbooks have named the Blue Jays as -197 favorites for the game, which airs on NESN.

Toronto’s Kevin Gausman gets the start, and he’ll go against Boston’s Brayan Bello.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds

Blue Jays odds to win: -197
Red Sox odds to win: +165
Spread: Blue Jays -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, May 4, 2023
Time: 6:10 PM ET
TV: NESN

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Who Will Win Blue Jays vs. Red Sox?

Blue Jays and Red Sox Betting Trends

The Blue Jays have been the moneyline favorite 22 total times this season. They’ve finished 13-9 in those games.

Toronto has gone 5-2 when playing as moneyline favorites with odds of -197 or shorter (71.4% winning percentage).

This season, the Red Sox have won nine out of the 18 games, or 50%, in which they’ve been the underdog.

Boston has played as an underdog of +165 or more once this season and lost that game.

The Blue Jays have played in 31 games with set over/under, and have combined with opponents to go over the total 13 times (13-16-2).

Games involving the Red Sox have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 22 of 32 chances this season.

Blue Jays Stats & Insights

The Blue Jays rank 11th in runs scored with 146, 4.7 per game.

Toronto is 13th in baseball with 35 total home runs.

The Blue Jays have the 12th-ranked batting average in the league (.254).

Toronto strikes out eight times per game to rank seventh in the majors.

The pitching staff for the Blue Jays has a collective 9.6 K/9, the fourth-best in the majors.

Toronto has a 4.12 team ERA that ranks 13th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox are among the highest scoring teams in the majors, ranking third with 184 total runs this season.

Boston ranks fifth in Major League Baseball with 44 home runs.

The Red Sox rank second in MLB with a .270 team batting average.

Boston has shown good bat-to-ball skills at the plate this season with the fifth-best strikeout rate (7.6 per game) among MLB offenses.

The Red Sox average the 20th-most strikeouts per nine innings (8.6) in the league this season.

Boston pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.93 ERA this year, which ranks 23rd in MLB.

Blue Jays Key Players to Watch

Gausman gets the start for the Blue Jays, his seventh of the season. He is 2-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 54 strikeouts through 38 2/3 innings pitched.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .317 with six home runs and 18 RBI for Toronto this season.

Matt Chapman is a key run producer for Toronto with a .364 average, five homers and 21 RBI.

Bo Bichette leads Toronto in home runs with seven and runs batted in with 21.

Varsho has 23 hits and an OBP of .302 to go with a slugging percentage of .364 this season.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

Bello (0-1) will take the mound for the Red Sox, his fourth start of the season.

Alex Verdugo has racked up a team-best batting average of .315.

Rafael Devers has put his power on display as he leads his team with 10 home runs and 27 RBI.

Masataka Yoshida is batting .303 with six doubles, five home runs and 13 walks.

Justin Turner has seven doubles, two home runs and 15 walks while batting .273.

Blue Jays and Red Sox Injuries

Blue Jays: Adam Cimber: 15 Day IL (Rhomboid), Mitchell White: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Chad Green: 60 Day IL (Undisclosed), Hyun-Jin Ryu: 60 Day IL (Elbow)

Red Sox: Yu Chang: 10 Day IL (Hand), Adam Duvall: 10 Day IL (Wrist), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Elbow), James Paxton: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Joely Rodriguez: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee), Kenley Jansen: day-to-day (Back), Kutter Crawford: day-to-day (Knee)