Mets vs. Tigers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, May 4, 2023

May 4, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The New York Mets (16-15) hope to avoid an upset as -175 favorites when they take on Eric Haase (with homers in two straight contests) and the Detroit Tigers (12-17). First pitch is at 1:10 PM ET Thursday, live from Comerica Park and airing on MLB Network.

New York’s Justin Verlander gets the start, and he’ll go against Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez.

Mets vs. Tigers Odds

Mets odds to win: -175
Tigers odds to win: +149
Spread: Mets -1.5
Total: 7.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, May 4, 2023
Time: 1:10 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Mets vs. Tigers?

Mets and Tigers Betting Trends

The Mets have won 57.1% of the games this season when they were the moneyline favorite (12-9).

New York has gone 4-3 (winning 57.1% of its games) when playing as moneyline favorites of -175 or shorter.

The Tigers have been underdogs in 28 games this season and won 11 (39.3%) of those contests.

Detroit has a record of 4-9, a 30.8% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +149 or more by bookmakers this season.

The Mets have had an over/under set by oddsmakers 31 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in 14 of those games (14-16-1).

Games involving the Tigers have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 14 of 29 chances this season.

Mets Stats & Insights

The Mets have the No. 12 offense in MLB action scoring 4.5 runs per game (141 total runs).

New York ranks 16th in MLB play with 34 home runs. They average 1.1 per game.

The Mets are 18th in MLB with a .241 batting average.

New York strikes out 7.5 times per game, the third-best mark in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Mets has a collective 8.7 K/9, which ranks 18th in the majors.

New York has a 4.69 team ERA that ranks 19th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Tigers Stats & Insights

The Tigers are among the lowest scoring teams in the league, ranking last with just 102 total runs (3.5 per game) this season.

Detroit has hit just 24 homers this season, which ranks 27th in the majors.

The Tigers have a team batting average of just .225 this season, which ranks 27th among MLB teams.

Detroit ranks 21st in strikeouts per game (9.7) among MLB offenses.

The Tigers have a 7.6 K/9 this season as a pitching staff, which ranks 29th in baseball.

Detroit pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.69 ERA this year, which ranks 19th in MLB.

Mets Key Players to Watch

Verlander starts for the first time this season for the Mets.

Pete Alonso leads New York in home runs (11) and runs batted in (28) this season while batting .250.

Francisco Lindor has 25 hits and an OBP of .321 to go with a slugging percentage of .443 this season.

Jeff McNeil is slashing .294/.408/.422 this season for the Mets.

Brandon Nimmo leads New York with a .304 batting average.

Tigers Key Players to Watch

The Tigers’ Rodriguez (2-2) will make his seventh start of the season.

Javier Baez is batting .237 with five doubles, a home run and six walks.

Matt Vierling’s .281 batting average leads his team.

Spencer Torkelson is batting .210 with five doubles, two home runs and nine walks.

Nick Maton has hit four home runs with 14 runs batted in. Both are team-highs.

Mets and Tigers Injuries

Mets: Tim Locastro: 10 Day IL (Back spasms), Brooks Raley: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Edwin Uceta: 15 Day IL (Left ankle), Carlos Carrasco: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Elieser Hernandez: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Omar Narváez: 60 Day IL (Calf), Stephen Ridings: 60 Day IL (Lat), Sam Coonrod: 60 Day IL (Lat), Bryce Montes de Oca: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Edwin Díaz: 60 Day IL (Knee), José Quintana: 60 Day IL (Rib)

Tigers: Kerry Carpenter: 10 Day IL (Shoulder), Trey Wingenter: 15 Day IL (Biceps), Beau Brieske: 15 Day IL (Arm), Matt Manning: 60 Day IL (Foot), Austin Meadows: 60 Day IL (Anxiety), Casey Mize: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Tarik Skubal: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Freddy Pacheco: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Miguel Cabrera: day-to-day (Illness)