Orioles vs. Royals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, May 4, 2023

May 4, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Baltimore Orioles (20-10) visit the Kansas City Royals (8-23) Thursday to close out a three-game series. The Orioles are favored (-189) to win the rubber match, which starts at 2:10 PM ET from Kauffman Stadium.

Grayson Rodriguez starts for Baltimore while Jordan Lyles is Kansas City’s starter for the contest.

Orioles vs. Royals Odds

Orioles odds to win: -189
Royals odds to win: +160
Spread: Orioles -1.5
Total: 9.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, May 4, 2023
Time: 2:10 PM ET
TV: BSKC

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Who Will Win Orioles vs. Royals?

Orioles and Royals Betting Trends

The Orioles have gone 14-4 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 77.8% of those games).

When playing as moneyline favorites with odds of -189 or shorter, Baltimore has gone 3-1 (75%).

The Royals have entered the game as underdogs 30 times this season and won eight, or 26.7%, of those games.

Kansas City has a record of 2-9, a 18.2% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +160 or more by bookmakers this season.

The Orioles have combined with opponents to go over the total 17 times this season for a 17-12-1 record against the over/under.

The Royals and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 15 of their 31 opportunities.

Orioles Stats & Insights

The Orioles score the eighth-most runs in baseball (158 total, 5.3 per game).

Baltimore averages 1.2 home runs per game to rank 12th in baseball with 36 total home runs .

The Orioles’ .259 batting average is eighth-best in the majors.

Baltimore’s hitters strike out 8.1 times per game, the fifth-lowest average in MLB.

The Orioles pitching staff ranks 10th in the majors with a collective 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

Baltimore has a 4.40 team ERA that ranks 17th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Royals Stats & Insights

The Royals have scored the 28th-most runs in the league this season with just 109 (3.5 per game).

Kansas City has hit just 25 homers this season, which ranks 26th in the majors.

The Royals have a team batting average of just .225 this season, which ranks 27th among MLB teams.

Kansas City ranks 18th with an average of 8.9 strikeouts per game.

The Royals strike out 8.9 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 15th in MLB.

Kansas City has pitched to a 5.46 ERA this season, which ranks 28th in baseball.

Orioles Key Players to Watch

Rodriguez gets the start for the Orioles, his sixth of the season. He is 1-0 with a 4.07 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings pitched.

Adley Rutschman leads Baltimore with a batting average of .313. He’s also hit four home runs with 18 RBI.

Jorge Mateo has 26 hits and an OBP of .371 to go with a slugging percentage of .613 this season.

Ryan Mountcastle leads Baltimore in home runs with eight and runs batted in with 26.

Cedric Mullins has collected 26 hits this season and has an OBP of .363. He’s slugging .410 on the year.

Royals Key Players to Watch

The Royals’ Lyles (0-5) will make his seventh start of the season.

Vinnie Pasquantino leads the Royals with six home runs and has a team-best batting average of .292.

Bobby Witt Jr. is batting .222 with four doubles, three triples, five home runs and seven walks.

Salvador Perez paces the Royals with 16 runs batted in.

Edward Olivares has six doubles, two triples, two home runs and six walks while batting .267.

Orioles and Royals Injuries

Orioles: Mychal Givens: 15 Day IL (Knee), Dillon Tate: 15 Day IL (Elbow), John Means: 60 Day IL (Elbow)

Royals: Nicky Lopez: 10 Day IL (Appendicitis), Drew Waters: 10 Day IL (Oblique), Daniel Lynch: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Kris Bubic: 60 Day IL (Flexor), Jake Brentz: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Angel Zerpa: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Diego Hernandez: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)