Rays vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, May 4, 2023

May 4, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (25-6) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (20-11) at 1:10 PM ET Thursday in a meeting between two of the league’s best hitters. Randy Arozarena is batting .325 this year (ninth in the league) for the favored Rays (-198), while Bryan Reynolds ranks seventh in the majors with a .327 average for the underdog Pirates.

Zach Eflin starts for Tampa Bay while Vince Velasquez is Pittsburgh’s starter for the contest.

Rays vs. Pirates Odds

Rays odds to win: -198
Pirates odds to win: +166
Spread: Rays -1.5
Total: 8 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, May 4, 2023
Time: 1:10 PM ET
TV: BSSUN

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Who Will Win Rays vs. Pirates?

Rays and Pirates Betting Trends

The Rays have won 25 of the 30 games they were listed as the moneyline favorite this season (83.3%).

Tampa Bay has played in 10 games as moneyline favorites with odds of -198 or shorter and won them all.

The Pirates have won 13, or 56.5%, of the 23 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Pittsburgh has played as an underdog of +166 or more twice this season and split those games.

The Rays have had an over/under set by bookmakers 31 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in 17 of those games (17-11-3).

The Pirates’ games have gone over the total in 15 of their 31 chances.

Rays Stats & Insights

The Rays score the most runs in baseball (207 total, 6.7 per game).

The Tampa Bay Rays lead baseball with 64 total home runs, averaging 2.1 per game.

The Rays lead MLB with a .280 batting average.

Tampa Bay strikes out 8.6 times per game to rank 15th in the majors.

The 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings compiled by the Rays pitching staff ranks 16th in MLB.

Tampa Bay has the first-ranked team ERA among all MLB pitching staffs (2.97).

Pirates Stats & Insights

The Pirates have scored the eighth-most runs in the league this season with 158.

Pittsburgh ranks 13th in Major League Baseball with 35 home runs.

The Pirates’ .259 batting average is among the best in baseball, ranking eighth in MLB.

Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in baseball at making contact this season, ranking eighth with an average of eight strikeouts per game.

The Pirates average the 16th-most strikeouts per nine innings (8.8) in the league this season.

Pittsburgh has the ninth-best ERA (3.64) in the majors this season.

Rays Key Players to Watch

The Rays are sending Eflin (3-0) to the mound to make his fifth start of the season. He is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 21 strikeouts through 21 2/3 innings pitched.

Wander Franco has been key for Tampa Bay with 36 hits, an OBP of .374 plus a slugging percentage of .559.

Arozarena leads Tampa Bay in home runs with seven, runs batted in with 28 and a batting average of .325.

Yandy Diaz’s seven home runs lead all Tampa Bay hitters, and he’s slugging .570.

Josh Lowe is batting .338 with an OBP of .391 and a slugging percentage of .638 this season.

Pirates Key Players to Watch

The Pirates will send Velasquez (4-2) to the mound for his seventh start this season.

Reynolds leads the Pirates in runs batted in (23) and has a team-high batting average of .327.

Andrew McCutchen’s six home runs lead his team.

Carlos Santana is batting .269 with nine doubles, two home runs and 14 walks.

Connor Joe is hitting .295 with nine doubles, three triples, four home runs and 11 walks.

Rays and Pirates Injuries

Rays: Pete Fairbanks: 15 Day IL (Forearm), Tyler Glasnow: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Jeffrey Springs: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Shane Baz: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Shawn Armstrong: 60 Day IL (Neck), Andrew Kittredge: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Josh Fleming: day-to-day (Foot)

Pirates: Rob Zastryzny: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Chase De Jong: 15 Day IL (Knee), Wil Crowe: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Ji-Man Choi: 60 Day IL (Achilles), Oneil Cruz: 60 Day IL (Ankle), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow)