Blue Jays vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, May 5, 2023

May 5, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays (18-14) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (20-12) at 6:35 PM ET Friday in a meeting between two of the league’s best hitters. Matt Chapman is batting .351 this year (third in the league) for the favored Blue Jays (-167), while Bryan Reynolds ranks ninth in the majors with a .325 average for the underdog Pirates.

Toronto’s Chris Bassitt and Pittsburgh’s Rich Hill have been named the starters for this contest.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds

Blue Jays odds to win: -167
Pirates odds to win: +143
Spread: Blue Jays -1.5
Total: 9 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, May 5, 2023
Time: 6:35 PM ET
TV: SportsNet PT

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Who Will Win Blue Jays vs. Pirates?

Blue Jays and Pirates Betting Trends

The Blue Jays have won 56.5% of the games this season when they were favored on the moneyline (13-10).

Toronto has gone 8-3 (winning 72.7% of its games) when it has played as moneyline favorites of -167 or shorter.

The Pirates have been underdogs in 24 games this season and won 13 (54.2%) of those contests.

Pittsburgh has entered five games this season as the underdog by +143 or more and is 2-3 in those contests.

In the 32 games in which oddsmakers have set an over/under for the Blue Jays, they have combined with opponents to go over the total 14 times (14-16-2).

So far this season, the Pirates and their opponents have hit the over in 15 of their 32 games with a total.

Blue Jays Stats & Insights

The Blue Jays have the No. 11 offense in baseball scoring 4.7 runs per game (151 total runs).

Toronto ranks 13th in MLB action with 36 total home runs.

The Blue Jays’ .255 batting average ranks 11th in MLB.

Toronto’s hitters strike out eight times per game, the eighth-fewest strikeouts in the majors.

The Blue Jays pitching staff is sixth in the majors with a collective 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

Toronto has the 15th-ranked team ERA across all MLB pitching staffs (4.36).

Pirates Stats & Insights

The Pirates have scored the ninth-most runs in the league this season with 160.

Pittsburgh ranks 15th in Major League Baseball with 35 home runs.

The Pirates’ .255 batting average ranks 11th in the league this season.

Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in baseball at making contact this season, ranking ninth with an average of 8.2 strikeouts per game.

The Pirates average the 16th-most strikeouts per nine innings (8.8) in the league this season.

Pittsburgh has the ninth-best ERA (3.64) in the majors this season.

Blue Jays Key Players to Watch

Bassitt (3-2) gets the starting nod for the Blue Jays in his seventh start of the season. He’s put together a 5.18 ERA in 33 2/3 innings pitched, with 28 strikeouts.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .320 this season with a team-high seven home runs.

Bo Bichette leads Toronto in home runs with seven and runs batted in with 22.

Chapman is batting .351 to lead Toronto, while adding five homers and 21 runs batted in this season.

Daulton Varsho has collected 25 hits this season and has an OBP of .308. He’s slugging .372 on the year.

Pirates Key Players to Watch

Hill (3-2) will take to the mound for the Pirates and make his seventh start of the season.

Reynolds paces the Pirates with 23 runs batted in while racking up a team-high batting average of .325.

Carlos Santana has 11 doubles, two home runs and 14 walks while hitting .278.

Andrew McCutchen paces the Pirates with six home runs.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is batting .225 with eight doubles, two triples, a home run and 10 walks.

Blue Jays and Pirates Injuries

Blue Jays: Zach Pop: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Adam Cimber: 15 Day IL (Rhomboid), Mitchell White: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Chad Green: 60 Day IL (Undisclosed), Hyun-Jin Ryu: 60 Day IL (Elbow)

Pirates: Vince Velásquez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Rob Zastryzny: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Chase De Jong: 15 Day IL (Knee), Wil Crowe: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Oneil Cruz: 60 Day IL (Ankle), Ji-Man Choi: 60 Day IL (Achilles), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Andrew McCutchen: day-to-day (Ankle)