Phillies vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, May 7, 2023

May 7, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (15-19) hope to avoid their seventh straight defeat when they host the Boston Red Sox (21-14) Sunday at 1:35 PM ET on NBCS-PH. The Phillies are listed as -123 favorites to snap their losing skid, while the Red Sox are +103 underdogs.

Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker gets the start, and he’ll go against Boston’s Tanner Houck.

Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds

Phillies odds to win: -123
Red Sox odds to win: +103
Spread: Phillies -1.5
Total: 10 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, May 7, 2023
Time: 1:35 PM ET
TV: NBCS-PH

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Who Will Win Phillies vs. Red Sox?

Phillies and Red Sox Betting Trends

The Phillies have won 10 of the 19 games they were the moneyline favorite this season (52.6%).

When playing as moneyline favorites with odds of -123 or shorter, Philadelphia has an 8-7 record (winning 53.3% of its games).

This season, the Red Sox have been the underdog 21 times and won 12, or 57.1%, of those games.

Boston has a record of 9-9, a 50% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +103 or more by oddsmakers this season.

The Phillies have played in 34 games with set over/under, and have combined with opponents to go over the total 16 times (16-17-1).

The Red Sox and their opponents have hit the over in 24 of their 35 games with a total this season.

Phillies Stats & Insights

The Phillies are the 16th-highest scoring team in MLB action averaging 4.2 runs per game (144 total).

Philadelphia ranks 14th in MLB action with 37 total home runs.

The Phillies are fifth in the majors with a .265 batting average.

Philadelphia strikes out 9.1 times per game to rank 25th in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Phillies has a collective 9.5 K/9, the fifth-best in MLB.

Philadelphia has a 5.15 team ERA that ranks 27th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox have scored the second-most runs in the league this season with 207.

Boston’s 46 home runs rank fifth in Major League Baseball.

The Red Sox’s .273 batting average is among the best in baseball, ranking second in MLB.

Boston has shown good bat-to-ball skills at the plate this season with the fifth-best strikeout rate (7.6 per game) among MLB offenses.

The Red Sox average the 20th-most strikeouts per nine innings (8.6) in the league this season.

Boston has pitched to a 4.79 ERA this season, which ranks 22nd in baseball.

Phillies Key Players to Watch

Walker (2-2 with a 6.91 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Phillies, his seventh of the season.

Nicholas Castellanos has been key for Philadelphia with 40 hits, an OBP of .359 plus a slugging percentage of .489.

Alec Bohm leads Philadelphia in runs batted in (25) this season. He’s batting .278 while slugging .405.

Brandon Marsh’s batting average of .323 leads all Philadelphia hitters this season.

Trea Turner has 38 hits and an OBP of .310 to go with a slugging percentage of .414 this season.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

The Red Sox will hand the ball to Houck (3-1) for his seventh start of the season.

Rafael Devers leads the Red Sox in home runs (11) and runs batted in (34).

Alex Verdugo is hitting .316 to lead his team.

Masataka Yoshida is hitting .315 with six doubles, six home runs and 13 walks.

Justin Turner is batting .267 with seven doubles, two home runs and 16 walks.

Phillies and Red Sox Injuries

Phillies: Darick Hall: 10 Day IL (Thumb), Cristian Pache: 10 Day IL (Knee), Andrew Bellatti: 15 Day IL (Tricep), Noah Song: 15 Day IL (Back), Ranger Suárez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Rafael Marchan: 60 Day IL (Hand), Rhys Hoskins: 60 Day IL (Acl)

Red Sox: Yu Chang: 10 Day IL (Hand), Christian Arroyo: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Kutter Crawford: 15 Day IL (Knee), James Paxton: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Joely Rodriguez: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Adam Duvall: 60 Day IL (Wrist), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee)