Padres vs. Twins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, May 11, 2023

May 11, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The San Diego Padres (19-18) and the Minnesota Twins (20-17) meet in the rubber match of a three-game series on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET. The Padres are -132 favorites on the moneyline to win the series over the Twins (+111).

Yu Darvish takes the mound for San Diego while Bailey Ober is Minnesota’s starter for the contest.

Padres vs. Twins Odds

Padres odds to win: -132
Twins odds to win: +111
Spread: Padres -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, May 11, 2023
Time: 1:10 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Padres vs. Twins?

Padres and Twins Betting Trends

The Padres have compiled an 11-10 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 52.4% of those games).

San Diego has a record of 11-8 when it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -132 or shorter (57.9% winning percentage).

The Twins have been underdogs in 11 games this season and won two (18.2%) of those contests.

Minnesota is 2-4 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +111 or more on the moneyline.

The Padres have played in 37 games with a set over/under, and have combined with their opponents to go over the total 13 times (13-22-2).

The Twins and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 14 of their 37 opportunities.

Padres Stats & Insights

The Padres rank 24th in runs scored with 154, 4.2 per game.

San Diego is 16th in MLB action with 41 home runs. They average 1.1 per game.

The Padres’ .231 batting average ranks 27th in MLB.

San Diego’s nine strikeouts per game rank 20th in baseball.

The Padres pitching staff ranks 20th in MLB with a collective 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego has a 3.99 team ERA that ranks 12th across all MLB pitching staffs.

Twins Stats & Insights

The Twins have scored the 22nd-most runs in the league this season with 157 (4.2 per game).

Minnesota ranks ninth in Major League Baseball with 46 home runs.

The Twins rank last in MLB with a team batting average of just .219.

Minnesota is a team with a lot of swing and miss this season, ranking 27th with an average of 9.5 strikeouts per game.

The Twins average 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings as a pitching staff, third-most in the league.

Minnesota has pitched to a 3.30 ERA this season, which ranks second in baseball.

Padres Key Players to Watch

Darvish makes the start for the Padres, his seventh of the season. He is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings pitched.

Juan Soto leads San Diego in home runs with six and runs batted in with 18.

Xander Bogaerts is batting .272 this season with six home runs and 15 RBI.

Jake Cronenworth has 29 hits this season and a slash line of .236/.360/.407.

Manny Machado leads San Diego in runs batted in with 18 while batting .250 with five homers.

Twins Key Players to Watch

The Twins will hand the ball to Ober (2-0) for his fourth start of the season.

Byron Buxton paces the Twins in home runs (eight), runs batted in (19) and has racked up a team-best batting average of .226.

Max Kepler has five doubles, six home runs and 10 walks while hitting .223.

Carlos Correa has six doubles, a triple, five home runs and 16 walks while batting .189.

Joey Gallo has three doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 14 walks while hitting .169.

Padres and Twins Injuries

Padres: Jose Azocar: 10 Day IL (Elbow inflammation), David Dahl: 10 Day IL (Quadricep), Luis Campusano: 10 Day IL (Thumb sprain), Nabil Crismatt: 15 Day IL (Hip strain), Drew Pomeranz: 15 Day IL (Elbow/flexor), José Castillo: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Robert Suarez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adrian Morejon: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Eguy Rosario: 60 Day IL (Ankle)

Twins: Kenta Maeda: 15 Day IL (Tricep), Caleb Thielbar: 15 Day IL (Oblique strain), Ronny Henriquez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Tyler Mahle: 60 Day IL (Arm), Royce Lewis: 60 Day IL (Knee), Gilberto Celestino: 60 Day IL (Thumb), Chris Paddack: 60 Day IL (Elbow)