Orioles vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, May 12, 2023

May 12, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

Coming off of a 2-1 series win over the Rays, the Baltimore Orioles (24-13) are -153 favorites to pick up the win in Game 1 of a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (21-17). The series begins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, starting on Friday at 7:05 PM ET on MLB Network.

Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish gets the start, and he’ll go against Pittsburgh’s Johan Oviedo.

Orioles vs. Pirates Odds

Orioles odds to win: -153
Pirates odds to win: +132
Spread: Orioles -1.5
Total: 9 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, May 12, 2023
Time: 7:05 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Orioles vs. Pirates?

Orioles and Pirates Betting Trends

The Orioles have a 15-4 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 78.9% of those games).

When it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -153 or shorter, Baltimore has a 10-3 record (winning 76.9% of its games).

The Pirates have been underdogs in 27 games this season and won 13 (48.1%) of those contests.

Pittsburgh has a record of 4-8, a 33.3% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +132 or more by bookmakers this season.

The Orioles have played in 37 games with a set over/under, and have combined with their opponents to go over the total 20 times (20-16-1).

Games involving the Pirates have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 18 of 38 chances this season.

Orioles Stats & Insights

The Orioles are the eighth-highest scoring team in the majors, averaging 5.2 runs per game (192 total).

Baltimore is 15th in baseball with 42 total home runs.

The Orioles’ .252 batting average ranks 13th in MLB.

Baltimore strikes out 8.2 times per game to rank eighth in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Orioles has a collective nine K/9, which ranks 11th in MLB.

Baltimore has a 4.25 team ERA that ranks 15th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Pirates Stats & Insights

The Pirates rank 12th in the majors with 169 total runs scored this season.

Pittsburgh has hit 39 homers this season, which ranks 19th in the majors.

The Pirates’ .245 batting average ranks 15th in the league this season.

Pittsburgh ranks 11th in strikeouts per game (8.3) among MLB offenses.

The Pirates strike out 8.7 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 14th in MLB.

Pittsburgh has the 11th-ranked ERA (3.85) in the majors this season.

Orioles Key Players to Watch

Bradish (1-1) gets the starting nod for the Orioles in his sixth start of the season. He has a 5.95 ERA in 19 2/3 innings pitched, with 18 strikeouts.

Cedric Mullins leads Baltimore in runs batted in with 28 and has a batting average of .248.

Adley Rutschman is batting .274 with an OBP of .401 and a slugging percentage of .422 this season.

Ryan Mountcastle’s eight home runs lead all Baltimore hitters, and he’s slugging .471.

Jorge Mateo is batting .282 with an OBP of .327 and a slugging percentage of .515 this season.

Pirates Key Players to Watch

Oviedo (2-3) will take the mound for the Pirates, his eighth start of the season.

Bryan Reynolds has put up a team-best batting average of .297 while leading the Pirates in runs batted in (23).

Andrew McCutchen has hit seven home runs to lead his team.

Carlos Santana is hitting .246 with 11 doubles, two home runs and 18 walks.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is batting .246 with nine doubles, two triples, a home run and 13 walks.

Orioles and Pirates Injuries

Orioles: Ramón Urías: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Mychal Givens: 15 Day IL (Knee), Dillon Tate: 15 Day IL (Elbow), John Means: 60 Day IL (Elbow)

Pirates: Vince Velásquez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Rob Zastryzny: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Wil Crowe: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Oneil Cruz: 60 Day IL (Ankle), Ji-Man Choi: 60 Day IL (Achilles), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow)