Marlins vs. Reds Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, May 14, 2023

May 14, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

A pair of surging power hitters meet Sunday when Jazz Chisholm — with his two-game homer streak in tow — and the Miami Marlins (19-21) take on Jake Fraley (home runs in two straight) and the Cincinnati Reds (18-21). The Marlins are favorites (-155) for the contest, which starts at 1:40 PM ET, live from LoanDepot park and broadcast on MLB Network.

Miami’s Braxton Garrett and Cincinnati’s Luke Weaver have been named the starters for this contest.

Marlins vs. Reds Odds

Marlins odds to win: -155
Reds odds to win: +133
Spread: Marlins -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, May 14, 2023
Time: 1:40 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Marlins vs. Reds?

Marlins and Reds Betting Trends

The Marlins have won seven of the 15 games they were the moneyline favorite this season (46.7%).

In games it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -155 or shorter, Miami has a 2-1 record (winning 66.7% of its games).

The Reds have been underdogs in 28 games this season and won 12 (42.9%) of those contests.

Cincinnati is 5-11 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +133 or more on the moneyline.

The Marlins have had an over/under set by bookmakers 39 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in 18 of those games (18-20-1).

The Reds and their opponents have hit the over in 21 of their 39 games with a total this season.

Marlins Stats & Insights

The Marlins have the No. 28 offense in MLB play scoring 3.5 runs per game (138 total runs).

Miami averages 0.9 home runs per game to rank 24th in MLB action with 37 total home runs .

The Marlins are 15th in MLB with a .246 batting average.

Miami strikes out 8.6 times per game to rank 14th in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Marlins has a collective 9.3 K/9, the seventh-best in the majors.

Miami’s 4.68 team ERA ranks 22nd among all MLB pitching staffs.

Reds Stats & Insights

The Reds rank 20th in the majors with 170 total runs scored this season.

Cincinnati has hit just 32 homers this season, which ranks 26th in the majors.

The Reds rank 14th in MLB with a .247 team batting average.

Cincinnati ranks 24th in strikeouts per game (9.2) among MLB offenses.

The Reds strike out 9.2 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, ninth-best in MLB.

Cincinnati pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.93 ERA this year, which ranks 27th in MLB.

Marlins Key Players to Watch

Garrett gets the start for the Marlins, his seventh of the season. He is 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings pitched.

Luis Arraez leads Miami with a batting average of .379.

Jorge Soler leads Miami in home runs (nine) and runs batted in (20) this season while batting .245.

Chisholm is slashing .229/.291/.403 this season for the Marlins.

Jon Berti has 30 hits and an OBP of .317 to go with a slugging percentage of .363 this season.

Reds Key Players to Watch

Weaver (1-2) will take the mound for the Reds, his fifth start of the season.

Jonathan India is batting .301 with 12 doubles, three home runs and 18 walks.

Fraley has hit five home runs with 28 runs batted in. Both are team-highs.

Spencer Steer has launched a team-best five home runs.

TJ Friedl has a club-leading .306 batting average.

Marlins and Reds Injuries

Marlins: Jesús Sánchez: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Avisaíl García: 10 Day IL (Back), Trevor Rogers: 15 Day IL (Forearm ), JT Chargois: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Johnny Cueto: 15 Day IL (Biceps), Tommy Nance: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Max Meyer: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Anthony Bender: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Nic Enright: 60 Day IL (Illness), Jazz Chisholm: day-to-day (Foot)

Reds: Joey Votto: 10 Day IL (Bicep/shoulder), Reiver Sanmartin: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Fernando Cruz: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Connor Overton: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Tony Santillan: 60 Day IL (Back), Vladimir Gutierrez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Tejay Antone: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Justin Dunn: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Nick Lodolo: day-to-day (Foot/calf), Casey Legumina: day-to-day (Ankle), TJ Friedl: day-to-day (Oblique)