Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Tuesday, May 16, 2023

May 16, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

Coming off of a 1-2 series loss to the Mariners, the Detroit Tigers (18-21) are -125 favorites to pick up the win in Game 1 of a two-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (22-19). The series begins at Comerica Park, starting on Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET on BSDET.

Detroit’s Michael Lorenzen gets the start, and he’ll go against Pittsburgh’s Luis Ortiz.

Tigers vs. Pirates Odds

Tigers odds to win: -125
Pirates odds to win: +106
Spread: Tigers -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Time: 6:40 PM ET
TV: BSDET

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Who Will Win Tigers vs. Pirates?

Tigers and Pirates Betting Trends

The Tigers have been the moneyline favorite just one other time so far this season, a game they won.

Detroit has not yet played a game with moneyline odds of -125 or shorter.

The Pirates have been underdogs in 29 games this season and won 13 (44.8%) of those contests.

Pittsburgh has a record of 11-14, a 44% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +106 or more by sportsbooks this season.

In the 39 games in which oddsmakers have set an over/under for the Tigers, they have combined with opponents to go over the total 19 times (19-19-1).

So far this season, the Pirates and their opponents have hit the over in 18 of their 41 games with a total.

Tigers Stats & Insights

The Tigers score the fewest runs in baseball (139 total, 3.6 per game).

Detroit has hit the third-fewest home runs in MLB play this season (31).

The Tigers’ .230 batting average ranks 25th in MLB.

Detroit’s 9.1 strikeouts per game rank 15th in baseball.

The Tigers pitching staff is 27th in the majors with a collective 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

Detroit has a 4.42 team ERA that ranks 19th across all MLB pitching staffs.

Pirates Stats & Insights

The Pirates have scored the 20th-most runs in the league this season with 176 (4.3 per game).

Pittsburgh’s 40 home runs rank 23rd in Major League Baseball.

The Pirates rank 18th in MLB with a .240 team batting average.

Pittsburgh ranks 11th in strikeouts per game (8.5) among MLB offenses.

The Pirates average the 13th-most strikeouts per nine innings (8.7) in the league this season.

Pittsburgh has pitched to a 3.79 ERA this season, which ranks seventh in baseball.

Tigers Key Players to Watch

The Tigers will send Lorenzen (1-2) to make his sixth start of the season. He is 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings pitched.

Javier Baez leads Detroit in runs batted in with 18 while batting .254.

Riley Greene’s batting average of .279 leads all Detroit hitters this season.

Spencer Torkelson is slashing .231/.285/.350 this season for the Tigers.

Zach McKinstry is batting .273 with an OBP of .356 and a slugging percentage of .398 this season.

Pirates Key Players to Watch

The Pirates’ Ortiz will make his second start of the season.

Bryan Reynolds paces the Pirates in runs batted in (23) and has put up a team-best batting average of .293.

Andrew McCutchen has put his power on display as he leads his team with seven home runs.

Carlos Santana is hitting .239 with 11 doubles, two home runs and 19 walks.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has nine doubles, two triples, a home run and 14 walks while batting .235.

Tigers and Pirates Injuries

Tigers: Kerry Carpenter: 10 Day IL (Shoulder), Trey Wingenter: 15 Day IL (Biceps), Matt Manning: 60 Day IL (Foot), Austin Meadows: 60 Day IL (Anxiety), Beau Brieske: 60 Day IL (Arm), Casey Mize: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Tarik Skubal: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Freddy Pacheco: 60 Day IL (Elbow)

Pirates: Vince Velásquez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Rob Zastryzny: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Wil Crowe: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Oneil Cruz: 60 Day IL (Ankle), Ji-Man Choi: 60 Day IL (Achilles), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow)