Mets vs. Rays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 17, 2023

May 17, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

Expect a display of power when Pete Alonso (14 HR) and the New York Mets (20-23) take on Randy Arozarena (10 HR) and the Tampa Bay Rays (32-11) at Citi Field at 7:10 PM ET live on MLB Network. Alonso and the Mets are -128 favorites on the moneyline for the matchup.

Kodai Senga will get the ball for New York while Tampa Bay will counter with Josh Fleming.

Mets vs. Rays Odds

Mets odds to win: -128
Rays odds to win: +109
Spread: Mets -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Mets vs. Rays?

Mets and Rays Betting Trends

The Mets have won 16 of the 32 games they were the moneyline favorite this season (50%).

New York has gone 12-14 (winning 46.2% of its games) when playing as moneyline favorites of -128 or shorter.

This season, the Rays have been the underdog five times and won three of those games.

Tampa Bay has played as an underdog of +109 or more twice this season and split those games.

The Mets have had an over/under set by oddsmakers 42 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in 19 of those games (19-22-1).

The Rays and their opponents have hit the over in 24 of their 43 games with a total this season.

Mets Stats & Insights

The Mets are the 22nd-highest scoring team in MLB play averaging 4.2 runs per game (179 total).

New York averages one home run per game to rank 20th in MLB action with 44 total home runs .

The Mets rank 20th in MLB with a .240 batting average.

New York’s batters strike out 7.4 times per game, the third-lowest average in baseball.

The 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings compiled by the Mets pitching staff ranks 15th in MLB.

New York has a 4.77 team ERA that ranks 25th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Rays Stats & Insights

The Rays lead MLB with 268 runs scored this season.

No team in MLB has hit more homers than Tampa Bay, which has connected on 84 dingers this season.

No team has a better batting average than the .275 AVG the Rays have posted this season.

Tampa Bay ranks 13th in MLB in strikeouts per game with an average of 8.4 Ks per contest.

The Rays strike out 8.5 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 20th in MLB.

Tampa Bay has pitched to a 3.31 ERA this season, which ranks second in baseball.

Mets Key Players to Watch

Senga (4-2 with a 4.14 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Mets, his eighth of the season.

Alonso leads New York in home runs (14) and runs batted in (33) this season while batting .233.

Brandon Nimmo leads New York in batting with a .308 average while slugging three homers and driving in 18 runs.

Francisco Lindor has collected 37 base hits, an OBP of .306 and a slugging percentage of .418 this season.

Jeff McNeil has 43 hits and an OBP of .360 to go with a slugging percentage of .365 this season.

Rays Key Players to Watch

Fleming heads to the mound for the Rays to make his second start of the season, seeking his first win.

Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 10 home runs and has racked up a team-best batting average of .321.

Wander Franco is hitting .293 with 15 doubles, seven home runs and 13 walks.

Randy Arozarena leads the Rays with 10 home runs and 35 runs batted in.

Josh Lowe is hitting .296 with eight doubles, nine home runs and 11 walks.

Mets and Rays Injuries

Mets: Tim Locastro: 10 Day IL (Back), Tomás Nido: 10 Day IL (Eye), Jimmy Yacabonis: 15 Day IL (Quadricep), Edwin Uceta: 15 Day IL (Ankle), Carlos Carrasco: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Omar Narváez: 60 Day IL (Calf), Stephen Ridings: 60 Day IL (Lat), Sam Coonrod: 60 Day IL (Lat), Bryce Montes de Oca: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Elieser Hernandez: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Edwin Díaz: 60 Day IL (Knee), José Quintana: 60 Day IL (Rib)

Rays: Tyler Glasnow: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Drew Rasmussen: 60 Day IL (Flexor strain), Jeffrey Springs: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Garrett Cleavinger: 60 Day IL (Knee), Shane Baz: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Shawn Armstrong: 60 Day IL (Neck), Andrew Kittredge: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Yandy Díaz: day-to-day (Groin)