Red Sox vs. Mariners Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 17, 2023

May 17, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Boston Red Sox (23-20) host the Seattle Mariners (21-21) Wednesday to close out a three-game series. The Red Sox are favored (-131) to win the rubber match, which starts at 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park.

Boston’s Brayan Bello and Seattle’s Marco Gonzales have been named the starters for this contest.

Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds

Red Sox odds to win: -131
Mariners odds to win: +111
Spread: Red Sox -1.5
Total: 9.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Mariners?

Red Sox and Mariners Betting Trends

The Red Sox have won nine of the 16 games they were favored on the moneyline this season (56.2%).

Boston has a record of 4-4 when playing as moneyline favorites with odds of -131 or shorter (50% winning percentage).

The Mariners have won five, or 41.7%, of the 12 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Seattle is 2-3 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +111 or more on the moneyline.

In the 43 games in which bookmakers have set an over/under for the Red Sox, they have combined with opponents to go over the total 29 times (29-13-1).

Games involving the Mariners have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 20 of 42 chances this season.

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox are the third-highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 5.5 runs per game (236 total).

Boston is 10th in MLB action with 54 home runs. They average 1.3 per game.

The Red Sox rank third in the majors with a .268 batting average.

Boston strikes out 7.8 times per game, the fifth-best mark in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Red Sox has a collective 8.6 K/9, which ranks 15th in MLB.

Boston’s 5.07 team ERA ranks 27th across all MLB pitching staffs.

Mariners Stats & Insights

The Mariners rank 14th in the majors with 188 total runs scored this season.

Seattle’s 45 home runs rank 17th in Major League Baseball.

The Mariners rank 27th in MLB with a team batting average of just .228.

Seattle ranks 27th in strikeouts per game (9.7) among MLB offenses.

The Mariners strike out 8.9 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 11th in MLB.

Seattle has pitched to a 3.37 ERA this season, which ranks fourth in baseball.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

Bello (2-1) gets the starting nod for the Red Sox in his sixth start of the season. He has a 5.01 ERA in 23 1/3 innings pitched, with 24 strikeouts.

Alex Verdugo leads Boston with a .303 batting average. He’s also hit five homers and has 18 RBI.

Masataka Yoshida has collected 41 hits this season and has an OBP of .381. He’s slugging .507 on the year.

Rafael Devers leads Boston in home runs (11) and runs batted in (38) this season while batting .255.

Justin Turner has collected 43 hits this season and has an OBP of .360. He’s slugging .400 on the year.

Mariners Key Players to Watch

The Mariners’ Gonzales (3-0) will make his eighth start of the season.

Ty France is hitting .275 with 13 doubles, two home runs and 13 walks.

Jarred Kelenic’s eight home runs and .283 batting average both pace his team.

Julio Rodriguez has seven doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 14 walks while hitting .217.

J.P. Crawford has nine doubles, a home run and 26 walks while hitting .240.

Red Sox and Mariners Injuries

Red Sox: Christian Arroyo: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Yu Chang: 10 Day IL (Hand), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Elbow), John Schreiber: 15 Day IL (Side), Kutter Crawford: 15 Day IL (Knee), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adam Duvall: 60 Day IL (Wrist), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee)

Mariners: Dylan Moore: 10 Day IL (Olique), Penn Murfee: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Easton McGee: 15 Day IL (Forearm), Andres Munoz: 15 Day IL (Deltoid), Robbie Ray: 15 Day IL (Flexor), Evan White: 60 Day IL (Adductor)