Mets vs. Guardians Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, May 21, 2023

May 20, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The New York Mets (23-23), led by Pete Alonso on a four-game home run streak, are -148 favorites on the moneyline to defeat Gabriel Arias (homers in two straight contests) and the Cleveland Guardians (20-24). First pitch is at 1:40 PM ET on Sunday, live from Citi Field and airing on WPIX.

New York’s Max Scherzer and Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee have been named the starters for this contest.

Mets vs. Guardians Odds

Mets odds to win: -148
Guardians odds to win: +126
Spread: Mets -1.5
Total: 7.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, May 21, 2023
Time: 1:40 PM ET
TV: WPIX

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Who Will Win Mets vs. Guardians?

Mets and Guardians Betting Trends

The Mets are 18-16 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 52.9% of those games).

When it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -148 or shorter, New York has a 9-12 record (winning 42.9% of its games).

The Guardians have entered the game as underdogs 17 times this season and won eight, or 47.1%, of those games.

This season, Cleveland has won two of its four games when it’s the underdog by at least +126 on the moneyline.

The Mets have played in 45 games with over/under set, and have combined with opponents to go over the total 21 times (21-23-1).

Games involving the Guardians have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 17 of 43 chances this season.

Mets Stats & Insights

The Mets have the No. 15 offense in baseball scoring 4.3 runs per game (200 total runs).

New York averages 1.1 home runs per game to rank 15th in baseball with 51 total home runs .

The Mets are 19th in MLB with a .241 batting average.

New York strikes out 7.5 times per game, the third-best average in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Mets has a collective 8.6 K/9, which ranks 17th in the majors.

New York’s 4.78 team ERA ranks 24th across all MLB pitching staffs.

Guardians Stats & Insights

The Guardians have scored 159 runs (just 3.6 per game) this season, which ranks 28th in MLB.

Cleveland ranks last in Major League Baseball with just 26 home runs as a team.

The Guardians have a team batting average of just .229 this season, which ranks 26th among MLB teams.

No team has fewer strikeouts this season than Cleveland, which has struck out only 7.3 times per game on average.

The Guardians have a 7.6 K/9 this season as a pitching staff, which ranks 29th in baseball.

Cleveland has pitched to a 3.93 ERA this season, which ranks ninth in baseball.

Mets Key Players to Watch

The Mets are sending Scherzer (3-2) out to make his seventh start of the season. He is 3-2 with a 4.88 ERA and 26 strikeouts through 27 2/3 innings pitched.

Alonso leads New York in home runs (17) and runs batted in (41) this season while batting .233.

Francisco Lindor is batting .235 with an OBP of .313 and a slugging percentage of .419 this season.

Brandon Nimmo is batting .295 to lead New York, while adding three homers and 18 runs batted in this season.

Jeff McNeil has collected 47 hits this season and has an OBP of .363. He’s slugging .365 on the year.

Guardians Key Players to Watch

Bibee (1-1) will take to the mound for the Guardians and make his fifth start of the season.

Jose Ramirez has accumulated a team-high batting average of .279.

Steven Kwan is batting .263 with nine doubles, a triple, a home run and 25 walks.

Josh Naylor paces the Guardians in home runs (seven) and runs batted in (31).

Josh Bell is hitting .229 with 10 doubles, three home runs and 27 walks.

Mets and Guardians Injuries

Mets: Tomás Nido: 10 Day IL (Eye), Jimmy Yacabonis: 15 Day IL (Quadricep), Edwin Uceta: 15 Day IL (Ankle), Tim Locastro: 60 Day IL (Back), Omar Narváez: 60 Day IL (Calf), Stephen Ridings: 60 Day IL (Lat), Sam Coonrod: 60 Day IL (Lat), Bryce Montes de Oca: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Elieser Hernandez: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Edwin Díaz: 60 Day IL (Knee), José Quintana: 60 Day IL (Rib)

Guardians: Aaron Civale: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Peyton Battenfield: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Triston McKenzie: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Cody Morris: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)