Padres vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Saturday, May 20, 2023

May 20, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

Following a big two-homer game last time out, Rafael Devers leads the Boston Red Sox (25-20) into action as +123 underdogs against the San Diego Padres (20-25). First pitch from PETCO Park at 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, live on MLB Network.

San Diego’s Joe Musgrove and Boston’s Chris Sale have been named the starters for this contest.

Padres vs. Red Sox Odds

Padres odds to win: -143
Red Sox odds to win: +123
Spread: Padres -1.5
Total: 9 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Saturday, May 20, 2023
Time: 10:10 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Padres vs. Red Sox?

Padres and Red Sox Betting Trends

The Padres have won 46.2% of the games this season when they were favored on the moneyline (12-14).

In games it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -143 or shorter, San Diego has an 11-11 record (winning 50% of its games).

The Red Sox have been underdogs in 28 games this season and won 15 (53.6%) of those contests.

Boston is 11-4 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +123 or more on the moneyline.

In the 45 games in which bookmakers have set an over/under for the Padres, they have combined with opponents to go over the total 14 times (14-28-3).

So far this season, the Red Sox and their opponents have hit the over in 30 of their 45 games with a total.

Padres Stats & Insights

The Padres have the No. 27 offense in baseball scoring 3.8 runs per game (173 total runs).

San Diego ranks 19th in MLB action with 47 home runs. They average one per game.

The Padres have the worst batting average in the majors (.224).

San Diego strikes out 8.9 times per game to rank 19th in baseball.

The 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings compiled by the Padres pitching staff ranks 17th in the majors.

San Diego has the 12th-ranked team ERA among all MLB pitching staffs (4.04).

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox are among the highest scoring teams in the majors, ranking third with 254 total runs this season.

Boston ranks 11th in Major League Baseball with 57 home runs.

The Red Sox rank second in MLB with a .271 team batting average.

Boston has shown good bat-to-ball skills at the plate this season with the fourth-best strikeout rate (7.8 per game) among MLB offenses.

The Red Sox strike out 8.5 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 22nd in MLB.

Boston pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.91 ERA this year, which ranks 26th in MLB.

Padres Key Players to Watch

Musgrove gets the start for the Padres, his fifth of the season. He is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA and 19 strikeouts through 19 2/3 innings pitched.

Juan Soto leads San Diego in home runs with seven and runs batted in with 20.

Xander Bogaerts’ batting average of .268 leads all San Diego hitters this season.

Jake Cronenworth has 34 hits this season and a slash line of .221/.333/.390.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting .282 with an OBP of .319 and a slugging percentage of .491 this season.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

The Red Sox will send Sale (3-2) to the mound for his ninth start this season.

Devers leads the Red Sox with 13 home runs and 44 runs batted in.

Alex Verdugo is batting .304 to pace his team.

Masataka Yoshida is batting .299 with eight doubles, a triple, six home runs and 16 walks.

Justin Turner is hitting .279 with nine doubles, five home runs and 21 walks.

Padres and Red Sox Injuries

Padres: Manny Machado: 10 Day IL (Hand), Luis Campusano: 10 Day IL (Thumb sprain), Seth Lugo: 15 Day IL (Calf), Nabil Crismatt: 15 Day IL (Hip strain), José Castillo: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Drew Pomeranz: 60 Day IL (Elbow/flexor), Robert Suarez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adrian Morejon: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Eguy Rosario: 60 Day IL (Ankle)

Red Sox: Yu Chang: 10 Day IL (Hand), Christian Arroyo: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), John Schreiber: 15 Day IL (Side), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adam Duvall: 60 Day IL (Wrist), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee), Justin Turner: day-to-day (Knee)