Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, May 21, 2023

May 21, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Arizona Diamondbacks (26-20) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (24-21) meet in the rubber match of a three-game series on Sunday at 1:35 PM ET. The Diamondbacks are -129 favorites on the moneyline to win the series over the Pirates (+110).

Merrill Kelly will get the ball for Arizona while Pittsburgh will counter with Roansy Contreras.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds

Diamondbacks odds to win: -129
Pirates odds to win: +110
Spread: Diamondbacks -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, May 21, 2023
Time: 1:35 PM ET
TV: SportsNet PT

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Who Will Win Diamondbacks vs. Pirates?

Diamondbacks and Pirates Betting Trends

The Diamondbacks have won 57.9% of the games this season when they were favored on the moneyline (11-8).

Arizona has gone 9-7 (winning 56.2% of its games) when playing as moneyline favorites of -129 or shorter.

The Pirates have won 15, or 46.9%, of the 32 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Pittsburgh is 12-13 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +110 or more on the moneyline.

In the 46 games in which oddsmakers have set an over/under for the Diamondbacks, they have combined with opponents to go over the total 23 times (23-21-2).

Games involving the Pirates have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 20 of 45 chances this season.

Diamondbacks Stats & Insights

The Diamondbacks have the No. 8 offense in MLB play scoring 5.1 runs per game (234 total runs).

Arizona ranks 15th in MLB action with 51 home runs. They average 1.1 per game.

The Diamondbacks have the fourth-best batting average in the majors (.266).

Arizona strikes out 7.7 times per game to rank fourth in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Diamondbacks has a collective 8.3 K/9, which ranks 24th in MLB.

Arizona has a 4.66 team ERA that ranks 22nd across all MLB pitching staffs.

Pirates Stats & Insights

The Pirates have scored the 15th-most runs in the league this season with 200 (4.4 per game).

Pittsburgh’s 42 home runs rank 23rd in Major League Baseball.

The Pirates’ .245 batting average ranks 16th in the league this season.

Pittsburgh ranks 10th in MLB in strikeouts per game with an average of 8.5 Ks per contest.

The Pirates average the 11th-most strikeouts per nine innings (8.9) in the league this season.

Pittsburgh has pitched to a 3.68 ERA this season, which ranks sixth in baseball.

Diamondbacks Key Players to Watch

Kelly (4-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his 10th of the season.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. leads Arizona with a .307 batting average. He’s also hit seven homers and has 25 RBI.

Christian Walker leads Arizona in home runs (11) and runs batted in (31) this season while batting .256.

Ketel Marte has collected 46 base hits, an OBP of .346 and a slugging percentage of .476 this season.

Corbin Carroll has collected 42 hits this season and has an OBP of .375. He’s slugging .500 on the year.

Pirates Key Players to Watch

The Pirates will send Contreras (3-4) to the mound for his ninth start this season.

Bryan Reynolds paces the Pirates in runs batted in (27) and has racked up a team-best batting average of .289.

Andrew McCutchen has shown his power as he paces his team with seven home runs.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is batting .240 with 11 doubles, three triples, a home run and 14 walks.

Carlos Santana is hitting .242 with 14 doubles, two home runs and 22 walks.

Diamondbacks and Pirates Injuries

Diamondbacks: Kyle Lewis: 10 Day IL (Illness), Anthony Misiewicz: 15 Day IL (Calf), Joe Mantiply: 15 Day IL (Hamstring), Zach Davies: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Cole Sulser: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Carson Kelly: 60 Day IL (Forearm), Mark Melancon: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Corbin Martin: 60 Day IL (Lat)

Pirates: Vince Velásquez: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Wil Crowe: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Oneil Cruz: 60 Day IL (Ankle), Ji-Man Choi: 60 Day IL (Achilles), Jarlin García: 60 Day IL (Arm), Max Kranick: 60 Day IL (Elbow), JT Brubaker: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Duane Underwood Jr.: day-to-day (Forearm)