Padres vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, May 21, 2023

May 21, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The San Diego Padres (20-26), led by the red-hot Fernando Tatis Jr. and his two-game homer streak, are -163 favorites to pick up a win over the Boston Red Sox (26-20) Sunday at 4:10 PM ET, live from PETCO Park and broadcast on BSSD.

Michael Wacha will get the ball for San Diego while Boston will counter with Corey Kluber.

Padres vs. Red Sox Odds

Padres odds to win: -163
Red Sox odds to win: +139
Spread: Padres -1.5
Total: 9 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, May 21, 2023
Time: 4:10 PM ET
TV: BSSD

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Who Will Win Padres vs. Red Sox?

Padres and Red Sox Betting Trends

The Padres have been favored on the moneyline 27 total times this season. They’ve finished 12-15 in those games.

San Diego has a record of 6-8 when it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -163 or shorter (42.9% winning percentage).

The Red Sox have won 16, or 55.2%, of the 29 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Boston has entered seven games this season as the underdog by +139 or more and is 4-3 in those contests.

The Padres have had an over/under set by bookmakers 46 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in 14 of those games (14-29-3).

The Red Sox and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 30 of their 46 opportunities.

Padres Stats & Insights

The Padres have the No. 27 offense in MLB play scoring 3.8 runs per game (175 total runs).

San Diego ranks 18th in MLB action with 49 total home runs.

The Padres’ .222 batting average ranks last in MLB.

San Diego strikes out 8.9 times per game, the No. 21 mark in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Padres has a collective 8.6 K/9, which ranks 17th in MLB.

San Diego’s 4.03 team ERA ranks 12th among all MLB pitching staffs.

Red Sox Stats & Insights

The Red Sox are among the highest scoring teams in the majors, ranking third with 258 total runs this season.

Boston ranks 10th in Major League Baseball with 58 home runs.

The Red Sox have a team batting average of .269 this season, which ranks third among MLB teams.

Boston ranks fifth in MLB in strikeouts per game with an average of 7.8 Ks per contest.

The Red Sox strike out 8.5 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, 21st in MLB.

Boston has pitched to a 4.84 ERA this season, which ranks 26th in baseball.

Padres Key Players to Watch

The Padres are sending Wacha (4-1) to make his ninth start of the season. He is 4-1 with a 4.06 ERA and 41 strikeouts through 44 1/3 innings pitched.

Juan Soto leads San Diego in home runs with eight and runs batted in with 21.

Xander Bogaerts is batting .262 to lead San Diego, while adding six homers and 16 runs batted in this season.

Jake Cronenworth has collected 34 base hits, an OBP of .332 and a slugging percentage of .382 this season.

Tatis has 32 hits and an OBP of .317 to go with a slugging percentage of .509 this season.

Red Sox Key Players to Watch

Kluber (2-5) will take the mound for the Red Sox, his ninth start of the season.

Rafael Devers leads the Red Sox with 13 home runs and 44 runs batted in.

Alex Verdugo’s .303 batting average paces his team.

Masataka Yoshida is batting .295 with nine doubles, a triple, six home runs and 16 walks.

Justin Turner is hitting .279 with nine doubles, five home runs and 21 walks.

Padres and Red Sox Injuries

Padres: Manny Machado: 10 Day IL (Hand), Luis Campusano: 10 Day IL (Thumb sprain), Seth Lugo: 15 Day IL (Calf), Nabil Crismatt: 15 Day IL (Hip strain), José Castillo: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Drew Pomeranz: 60 Day IL (Elbow/flexor), Robert Suarez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adrian Morejon: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Eguy Rosario: 60 Day IL (Ankle)

Red Sox: Yu Chang: 10 Day IL (Hand), Christian Arroyo: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Garrett Whitlock: 15 Day IL (Elbow), John Schreiber: 15 Day IL (Side), Adam Duvall: 60 Day IL (Wrist), Zack Kelly: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Wyatt Mills: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Story: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adalberto Mondesi: 60 Day IL (Knee), Justin Turner: day-to-day (Knee)