Yankees vs. Reds Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, May 21, 2023

May 21, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

A pair of surging power hitters meet Sunday when Anthony Rizzo — with his two-game homer streak in tow — and the New York Yankees (28-20) take on Luke Maile (home runs in two straight) and the Cincinnati Reds (19-26). The Yankees are favorites (-134) for the contest, which starts at 11:35 AM ET, live from Great American Ball Park and broadcast on Peacock.

New York’s Luis Severino and Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene have been named the starters for this contest.

Yankees vs. Reds Odds

Yankees odds to win: -134
Reds odds to win: +114
Spread: Yankees -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, May 21, 2023
Time: 11:35 AM ET
TV: Peacock

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Who Will Win Yankees vs. Reds?

Yankees and Reds Betting Trends

The Yankees have gone 22-12 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 64.7% of those games).

New York has gone 19-6 (winning 76% of its games) when playing as moneyline favorites of -134 or shorter.

The Reds have entered the game as underdogs 33 times this season and won 13, or 39.4%, of those games.

Cincinnati has a record of 8-17, a 32% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +114 or more by oddsmakers this season.

In the 48 games in which oddsmakers have set an over/under for the Yankees, they have combined with opponents to go over the total 22 times (22-25-1).

Games involving the Reds have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 24 of 45 chances this season.

Yankees Stats & Insights

The Yankees have the No. 10 offense in baseball scoring 4.6 runs per game (222 total runs).

New York averages 1.5 home runs per game to rank fourth in MLB play with 71 total home runs.

The Yankees have the 22nd-ranked batting average in the majors (.237).

New York’s 8.2 strikeouts per game rank 13th in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Yankees has a collective 9.2 K/9, the eighth-best in MLB.

New York has the seventh-ranked team ERA among all MLB pitching staffs (3.69).

Reds Stats & Insights

The Reds rank 21st in the majors with 194 total runs scored this season.

Cincinnati’s 35 home runs rank 28th in MLB this season.

The Reds’ .245 batting average ranks 16th in the league this season.

Cincinnati ranks 23rd with an average of 9.2 strikeouts per game.

The Reds strike out 9.2 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, eighth-best in MLB.

Cincinnati pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.11 ERA this year, which ranks 28th in MLB.

Yankees Key Players to Watch

Severino gets the call to start for the Yankees, his first this season.

Aaron Judge leads New York in home runs with 13 and runs batted in with 32.

Rizzo leads New York in batting with a .303 average while slugging 11 homers and driving in 28 runs.

Gleyber Torres has collected 43 base hits, an OBP of .340 and a slugging percentage of .418 this season.

Anthony Volpe has 35 hits and an OBP of .299 to go with a slugging percentage of .386 this season.

Reds Key Players to Watch

The Reds will send Greene (0-3) to the mound for his 10th start this season.

Jonathan India leads the Reds with a team-best batting average of .289.

Jake Fraley’s five home runs and 32 runs batted in both lead his team.

Spencer Steer paces the Reds with five home runs.

Nick Senzel is batting .254 with five doubles, four home runs and 12 walks.

Yankees and Reds Injuries

Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Josh Donaldson: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Jose Trevino: 10 Day IL (Hamstring), Ian Hamilton: 15 Day IL (Groin), Carlos Rodón: 15 Day IL (Forearm), Jonathan Loaisiga: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Lou Trivino: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Luis Gil: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Frankie Montás: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Scott Effross: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Tommy Kahnle: 60 Day IL (Biceps)

Reds: TJ Friedl: 10 Day IL (Oblique), Henry Ramos: 10 Day IL (Hip), Derek Law: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Nick Lodolo: 15 Day IL (Calf), Casey Legumina: 15 Day IL (Ankle), Fernando Cruz: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Reiver Sanmartin: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Connor Overton: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Tony Santillan: 60 Day IL (Back), Vladimir Gutierrez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Joey Votto: 60 Day IL (Bicep/shoulder), Tejay Antone: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Justin Dunn: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)