Phillies vs. Braves Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, May 25, 2023

May 25, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-26) visit the Atlanta Braves (30-19) on Thursday to start a four-game series, with the first pitch at 7:20 PM ET from Truist Park. The Phillies are listed as -110 favorites, while the underdog Braves have -109 odds on the moneyline.

Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Atlanta’s Dylan Dodd have been named the starters for this contest.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds

Phillies odds to win: -110
Braves odds to win: -109
Spread: Phillies -1.5
Total: 9.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, May 25, 2023
Time: 7:20 PM ET
TV: MLB Network

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Who Will Win Phillies vs. Braves?

Phillies and Braves Betting Trends

The Phillies are 17-15 in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 53.1% of those games).

Philadelphia has a record of 18-15 when it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -110 or shorter (54.5% winning percentage).

The Braves have been underdogs in seven games this season and won four (57.1%) of those contests.

Atlanta has a record of 4-2 when it’s set as an underdog of -109 or more by oddsmakers this season.

The Phillies have had an over/under set by bookmakers 49 times, and have combined with opponents to go over the total in 21 of those games (21-25-3).

The Braves and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 29 of their 49 opportunities.

Phillies Stats & Insights

The Phillies have the No. 21 offense in MLB action scoring 4.3 runs per game (210 total runs).

Philadelphia is 21st in MLB play with 51 home runs. They average one per game.

The Phillies’ .258 batting average is 10th-best in the majors.

Philadelphia strikes out nine times per game to rank 20th in baseball.

The pitching staff for the Phillies has a collective 9.5 K/9, the fourth-best in the majors.

Philadelphia’s 4.58 team ERA ranks 23rd among all MLB pitching staffs.

Braves Stats & Insights

The Braves have scored 251 runs this season, which ranks ninth in MLB.

Atlanta ranks third in Major League Baseball with 80 home runs.

The Braves’ .254 batting average ranks 11th in the league this season.

Atlanta ranks 17th with an average of 8.8 strikeouts per game.

The Braves average 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings as a pitching staff, second-most in the league.

Atlanta has pitched to a 3.65 ERA this season, which ranks fourth in baseball.

Phillies Key Players to Watch

The Phillies are sending Nola (4-3) out for his 11th start of the season. He is 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 53 strikeouts through 62 2/3 innings pitched.

Alec Bohm leads Philadelphia in runs batted in with 35 and has a batting average of .264.

Nicholas Castellanos is batting .289 with an OBP of .340 and a slugging percentage of .453 this season.

Bryson Stott’s batting average of .291 leads all Philadelphia hitters this season.

Kyle Schwarber is slugging .404 this season, with a team-best 12 homers while driving in 24 runs.

Braves Key Players to Watch

The Braves will send out Dodd for his first start of the season.

Ronald Acuna Jr. paces the Braves with a .330 batting average.

Matt Olson has hit 14 home runs with 36 RBI. Both are team-highs.

Sean Murphy has a team-high 36 runs batted in.

Ozzie Albies is batting .254 with 10 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 10 walks.

Phillies and Braves Injuries

Phillies: Cristian Pache: 10 Day IL (Knee), José Alvarado: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Noah Song: 15 Day IL (Back), Darick Hall: 60 Day IL (Thumb), Rafael Marchan: 60 Day IL (Hand), Rhys Hoskins: 60 Day IL (Acl)

Braves: Max Fried: 15 Day IL (Forearm), Dylan Lee: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Kyle Wright: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Ehire Adrianza: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Huascar Ynoa: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Kolby Allard: 60 Day IL (Oblique), Tyler Matzek: 60 Day IL (Elbow)