Padres vs. Nationals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, May 25, 2023

May 25, 2023, by Matt Rooney MLB Predictions

The San Diego Padres (22-27) and the Washington Nationals (21-28) meet in the rubber match of a three-game series on Thursday at 4:05 PM ET. The Padres are -202 favorites on the moneyline to win the series over the Nationals (+171).

San Diego’s Blake Snell and Washington’s Jake Irvin have been named the starters for this contest.

Padres vs. Nationals Odds

Padres odds to win: -202
Nationals odds to win: +171
Spread: Padres -1.5
Total: 9.5 runs

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, May 25, 2023
Time: 4:05 PM ET
TV: MASN2

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Who Will Win Padres vs. Nationals?

Padres and Nationals Betting Trends

The Padres have been the moneyline favorite 30 total times this season. They’ve gone 14-16 in those games.

San Diego has gone 5-2 when it has played as moneyline favorites with odds of -202 or shorter (71.4% winning percentage).

The Nationals have won 18, or 39.1%, of the 46 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Washington has a record of 7-8, a 46.7% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +171 or more by sportsbooks this season.

The Padres have played in 49 games with a set over/under, and have combined with their opponents to go over the total 15 times (15-31-3).

So far this season, the Nationals and their opponents have hit the over in 21 of their 48 games with a total.

Padres Stats & Insights

The Padres score the fifth-fewest runs in baseball (192 total, 3.9 per game).

San Diego averages 1.1 home runs per game to rank 15th in MLB action with 56 total home runs .

The Padres’ .222 batting average ranks last in MLB.

San Diego strikes out 8.9 times per game to rank 18th in MLB.

The Padres pitching staff ranks 20th in MLB with a collective 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego has the 10th-ranked team ERA among all MLB pitching staffs (3.96).

Nationals Stats & Insights

The Nationals have scored the 24th-most runs in the league this season with 202 (4.1 per game).

Washington’s 36 home runs rank 29th in MLB this season.

The Nationals have a team batting average of .264 this season, which ranks fifth among MLB teams.

Washington is the best at avoiding strikeouts in MLB this season with only 348 as a team.

The Nationals strike out just 7.5 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, worst in MLB.

Washington has the 18th-ranked ERA (4.38) in the majors this season.

Padres Key Players to Watch

Snell (1-6) takes the mound for the Padres in his 10th start of the season. He’s put together a 5.60 ERA in 45 2/3 innings pitched, with 48 strikeouts.

Juan Soto is batting .257 with nine home runs and 22 RBI. All three of those stats lead San Diego hitters this season.

Xander Bogaerts has collected 46 hits this season and has an OBP of .351. He’s slugging .411 on the year.

Jake Cronenworth has 35 hits this season and a slash line of .210/.330/.383.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has collected 32 hits this season and has an OBP of .301. He’s slugging .468 on the year.

Nationals Key Players to Watch

Irvin (1-2) will take the mound for the Nationals, his fifth start of the season.

Lane Thomas paces the Nationals with seven home runs and 25 runs batted in.

Jeimer Candelario is hitting .258 with 13 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 13 walks.

Luis Garcia is batting .258 with five doubles, a triple, three home runs and 12 walks.

Keibert Ruiz has seven doubles, four home runs and 11 walks while batting .236.

Padres and Nationals Injuries

Padres: Manny Machado: 10 Day IL (Hand), Luis Campusano: 10 Day IL (Thumb sprain), Seth Lugo: 15 Day IL (Calf), Nabil Crismatt: 15 Day IL (Hip strain), José Castillo: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Drew Pomeranz: 60 Day IL (Elbow/flexor), Robert Suarez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adrian Morejon: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Eguy Rosario: 60 Day IL (Ankle)

Nationals: Victor Robles: 10 Day IL (Back), Israel Pineda: 10 Day IL (Finger), Stephen Strasburg: 60 Day IL (Ribs/shoulder), Tanner Rainey: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Cade Cavalli: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Victor Arano: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)