Padres vs. Marlins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, June 1, 2023

The San Diego Padres (25-30) and the Miami Marlins (29-27) meet in the rubber match of a three-game series on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET. The Padres are -119 favorites on the moneyline to win the series over the Marlins (+100).

Joe Musgrove will get the ball for San Diego while Miami will counter with Jesus Luzardo.

Padres vs. Marlins Odds

  • Padres odds to win: -119
  • Marlins odds to win: +100
  • Spread: Padres -1.5
  • Total: 7.5 runs
  • Padres vs. Marlins Promo Codes

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    Game Time and Information

  • Date: Thursday, June 1, 2023
  • Time: 1:10 PM ET
  • TV: MLB Network
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    Who Will Win Padres vs. Marlins?

    Padres and Marlins Betting Trends

    The Padres have been the moneyline favorite 33 total times this season. They’ve finished 16-17 in those games.

    San Diego has gone 15-15 (winning 50% of its games) when playing as moneyline favorites of -119 or shorter.

    The Marlins have been underdogs in 31 games this season and won 16 (51.6%) of those contests.

    Miami has a record of 12-15, a 44.4% win rate, when it’s set as an underdog of +100 or more by bookmakers this season.

    In the 55 games in which oddsmakers have set an over/under for the Padres, they have combined with opponents to go over the total 18 times (18-34-3).

    The Marlins and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 24 of their 55 opportunities.

    Padres Stats & Insights

    The Padres rank 24th in runs scored with 224, 4.1 per game.

    San Diego averages 1.2 home runs per game to rank 14th in baseball with 64 total home runs .

    The Padres’ .219 batting average ranks 29th in the majors.

    San Diego strikes out 9 times per game, the No. 19 average in baseball.

    The Padres pitching staff ranks 19th in the majors with a collective 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

    San Diego has a 3.98 team ERA that ranks 10th among all MLB pitching staffs.

    Marlins Stats & Insights

    The Marlins have scored the 27th-most runs in the league this season with just 209 (3.7 per game).

    Miami ranks 24th in Major League Baseball with 54 home runs.

    The Marlins have a team batting average of .258 this season, which ranks eighth among MLB teams.

    Miami ranks 11th in strikeouts per game (8.6) among MLB offenses.

    The Marlins average 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings as a pitching staff, sixth-most in the league.

    Miami pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.32 ERA this year, which ranks 18th in MLB.

    Padres Key Players to Watch

    The Padres are sending Musgrove (2-2) to make his seventh start of the season. He is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 31 strikeouts through 30 1/3 innings pitched.

    Juan Soto leads San Diego in home runs with 10, runs batted in with 26 and his batting average of .263 is also best on his team.

    Xander Bogaerts has collected 52 hits this season and has an OBP of .346. He’s slugging .396 on the year.

    Fernando Tatis Jr. is slashing .240/.290/.453 this season for the Padres.

    Jake Cronenworth has collected 39 hits this season and has an OBP of .326. He’s slugging .374 on the year.

    Marlins Key Players to Watch

    The Marlins will hand the ball to Luzardo (4-3) for his 12th start of the season.

    Jorge Soler leads the Marlins in home runs (17) and runs batted in (35).

    Luis Arraez’s .381 batting average leads his team.

    Bryan De La Cruz is hitting .296 with 10 doubles, seven home runs and 16 walks.

    Yuli Gurriel has four doubles, two triples, three home runs and 13 walks while batting .282.

    Padres and Marlins Injuries

    Padres: Luis Campusano: 10 Day IL (Thumb sprain), Manny Machado: 10 Day IL (Hand), Seth Lugo: 15 Day IL (Calf), Luís Garcia: 15 Day IL (Oblique), Nabil Crismatt: 15 Day IL (Hip strain), José Castillo: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Drew Pomeranz: 60 Day IL (Elbow/flexor), Robert Suarez: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Adrian Morejon: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Eguy Rosario: 60 Day IL (Ankle)

    Marlins: Avisaíl García: 10 Day IL (Back), Jazz Chisholm: 10 Day IL (Toe), A.J. Puk: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Trevor Rogers: 15 Day IL (Forearm ), Johnny Cueto: 60 Day IL (Biceps), Tommy Nance: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Max Meyer: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Anthony Bender: 60 Day IL (Elbow)

    Padres vs. Marlins Prediction

  • Score Prediction: Marlins 5, Padres 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
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    written by

    Matt is from the Chicagoland area and has been working in Chicago sports since 2015 with stops at WGN Radio, the Chicago Blackhawks, Stadium, and NBC Sports Chicago prior to landing at Betsperts. Matt covers just about everything for Betsperts and Bleacher Nation but focuses on the NHL and college football.

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