Heat vs. Pistons Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, March 19, 2023

Miami is a 10-point favorite against Detroit when the Bam Adebayo-led Heat (38-34) and Jaden Ivey’s Pistons (16-55) meet on March 19, 2023. A point total of 218.5 is set for the game.

Heat vs. Pistons Odds

• Heat odds to win: -483
• Pistons odds to win: +367
• Spread: Heat (-10)
• Total: 218.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET
• Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan
• TV: BSDET and BSSUN

Who Will Win Heat vs. Pistons?

Heat and Pistons Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Heat are 0-3 against the spread when favored by 10 points or more this season.

The Pistons have a 10-10-1 record against the spread when an underdog by 10 points or more this season.

These two teams average a combined 220.1 points per game, 1.6 more points than the total of 218.5 set for this matchup.

Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 228.3 points per game, 9.8 more than the over/under in this game.

The Heat’s average total in matchups this season has been 218.6, 0.1 points higher than the over/under in this particular game.

The average total for Detroit’s games this season is 11.1 more points than the point total of 218.5 for this outing.

So far this season, Miami has compiled a 25-43-4 record against the spread.

The Pistons have a 31-39-1 record against the spread this year.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat average 109 points per game (30th in the league) while allowing 109.7 per outing (second in the NBA). They have a -48 scoring differential overall.

The 40.9 rebounds per game the Heat average rank 27th in the league, and are 1.1 fewer than the 42 their opponents record per outing.

Miami makes 11.7 three-pointers per game (17th in the league) while shooting 33.8% from beyond the arc (28th in the NBA). It is making 1.5 fewer threes per outing than its opponents, who drain 13.2 per game while shooting 37%.

The Heat rank 26th in the league by averaging 109.5 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are sixth in the NBA, allowing 110 points per 100 possessions.

The Heat have scored at a higher rate when playing at home than on the road in the 2022-23 season (110.5 at home versus 107.3 on the road), though they have surrendered fewer points at home than away from home (109.2 opponent points per home game versus 110.2 on the road).

Pistons Stats & Insights

The Pistons are being outscored by 7.5 points per game, with a -534 scoring differential overall. They put up 111.1 points per game (28th in NBA), and allow 118.6 per contest (29th in league).

Detroit is 20th in the NBA at 42.7 rebounds per game. That’s 2.1 fewer than the 44.8 its opponents average.

The Pistons knock down 11.5 three-pointers per game (19th in the league) at a 35.2% rate (21st in NBA), compared to the 11.9 their opponents make, shooting 36.1% from deep.

The Pistons rank 28th in the league averaging 108 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are 27th, allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions.

At home, Detroit averages 112.8 points per game. On the road, it averages 109.1.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo averages 21 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, with 3.3 assists.

Jimmy Butler contributes with 6.1 boards and five assists per game in addition to his 22.6 PPG scoring average.

Tyler Herro leads active Heat in three-point shooting, making an average of three shots per game from beyond the arc.

Butler picks pockets to the tune of 1.9 takeaways per game, while Adebayo compiles 0.9 rejections per contest.

Pistons Key Players to Watch

Ivey pours in 15.4 points per game. He also contributes 3.9 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game this season.

This season, Jalen Duren is averaging 8.8 points, 1.1 assists and 8.9 rebounds per game.

Ivey averages 1.4 made threes per game.

The Pistons’ defensive efforts get a lift from Killian Hayes (1.4 steals per game) and Duren (0.9 blocks per game).

Heat vs. Pistons Prediction

• Pick ATS: Pistons (+ 10)
• Pick OU:

  Over (218.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Heat 115 – Pistons 109

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