Heat vs. Magic Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, April 9, 2023

April 9, 2023, by Luis Escalante NBA Predictions

Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat (43-38) enter their matchup against the Franz Wagner-led Orlando Magic (34-47) on April 9, 2023 as a 5.5-point favorite. The game has an over/under of 217.5.

Heat vs. Magic Odds

Heat odds to win: -209
Magic odds to win: +173
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
Total: 217.5

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Game Time and Information

When: Sunday, April 9, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: FTX Arena in Miami, Florida
TV: BSSUN and BSFL

Who Will Win Heat vs. Magic?

Heat and Magic Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

When they have played as at least 5.5-point favorites this season, the Heat are 4-16-1 against the spread.

The Magic are 24-14-3 against the spread when an underdog by 5.5 points or more this year.

Between them, these two teams average 3.2 more points per game (220.7) than this game’s total (217.5).

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 6.2 more points per game (223.7) than this game’s over/under of 217.5 points.

The Heat’s average point total in matchups this season is 219.1, 1.6 points higher than the over/under in this game.

The average point total for Orlando this year is 7.8 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Miami’s ATS record is 29-48-4 this season.

The Magic have gone 45-33-3 ATS this season.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat score 109.3 points per game (30th in the NBA) and give up 109.8 (second in the league) for a -39 scoring differential overall.

The 40.6 rebounds per game the Heat average rank 28th in the league, and are 1.2 fewer than the 41.8 their opponents record per contest.

Miami knocks down 11.9 three-pointers per game (17th in the league) while shooting 34.3% from deep (27th in the NBA). It is making 1.2 fewer threes per outing than its opponents, who drain 13.1 per game while shooting 36.7%.

The Heat average 110.3 points per 100 possessions on offense (25th in the league), and allow 110.6 points per 100 possessions (ninth in the NBA).

In 2022-23, the Heat’s offense has been better at home, where they average 111.2 points per game, compared to road games, where they average 107.5 per game. On defense, they have been slightly worse at home, where they give up 110.3 points per game, versus road games, where they let opponents to average 109.3 per game.

Magic Stats & Insights

The Magic are being outscored by 2.5 points per game, with a -197 scoring differential overall. They put up 111.4 points per game (26th in NBA), and allow 113.9 per contest (15th in league).

Orlando wins the rebound battle by 1.2 boards on average. It collects 43.2 rebounds per game, 16th in the league, while its opponents grab 42.

The Magic connect on 10.7 three-pointers per game (26th in the league), 2.2 fewer than their opponents.

The Magic put up 109 points per 100 possessions (27th in league), while allowing 111.4 points per 100 possessions (11th in NBA).

Orlando is scoring more points at home (114.3 per game) than away (108.5).

Heat Key Players to Watch

The Heat get 20.6 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists from Adebayo.

Kyle Lowry’s averages this season are 11.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game.

The Heat get 3.1 three-pointers per game out of Tyler Herro.

Adebayo has put up 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks per game.

Magic Key Players to Watch

Wagner puts up 18.7 points per game. He also contributes 4.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game this season.

This season, Wendell Carter Jr. has a statline that includes 15.5 points, 2.3 assists and 8.8 rebounds per game.

Wagner hits 1.6 treys per game.

The Magic’s defensive efforts get a lift from Markelle Fultz (1.5 steals per game) and Bol Bol (1.2 blocks per game).