Bucks vs. Heat NBA Playoffs Game 1 Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, April 16, 2023

Odds are against the Miami Heat (44-38), who are a 9.5-point underdog when they square off with the Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) on April 16, 2023. The game’s over/under is 220.5.

Bucks vs. Heat Odds

• Bucks odds to win: -452
• Heat odds to win: +351
• Spread: Bucks (-9.5)
• Total: 220.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 5:30 PM ET
• Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
• TV: TNT, BSSUN, and BSWIX

Who Will Win Bucks vs. Heat?

Bucks and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Bucks have a 6-12 record against the spread this season when favored by 9.5 points or more.

The Heat have not yet covered the spread as underdogs of 9.5 points or more this season (0-1).

These two teams average 226.4 points per game combined, 5.9 more than the over/under of 220.5.

Milwaukee and Miami have seen its opponents average a combined 2.6 more points per game than the over/under of 220.5 set in this game.

The average over/under the Bucks have had set in games this year is 9.7 more points than this outing’s point total.

The average point total for Miami this year is 1.2 points fewer than this game’s over/under.

Milwaukee has gone 42-35-5 ATS this season.

So far this season, the Heat have compiled a 30-48-4 record against the spread.

Bucks Stats & Insights

The Bucks’ +298 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 3.6 points per game) is a result of scoring 116.9 points per game (eighth in the NBA) while allowing 113.3 per contest (14th in the league).

The Bucks are first in the NBA at 48.6 rebounds per game. That’s 4.4 more than the 44.2 their opponents average.

Milwaukee hits 2.7 more threes per contest than the opposition, 14.8 (fourth-most in the league) compared to its opponents’ 12.1.

The Bucks’ 114.1 points per 100 possessions on offense rank ninth in the NBA, and the 109.4 points they allow per 100 possessions rank fourth in the league.

The Bucks have been better offensively at home, where they score 118.8 points per game, compared to road games, where they score 115 per game. Defensively, they are better when playing at home, where they concede 112.5 points per game, versus on the road, where they let their opponents to average 114.1 per game.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat have a -26 scoring differential, putting up 109.5 points per game (30th in league) and allowing 109.8 (second in NBA).

Miami loses the rebound battle by 1.3 boards on average. It collects 40.6 rebounds per game, 27th in the league, while its opponents pull down 41.9.

The Heat hit 1.1 fewer threes per game than the opposition, 12 (16th in the league) compared to their opponents’ 13.1.

The Heat rank 25th in the NBA with 110.4 points scored per 100 possessions, and ninth defensively with 110.6 points conceded per 100 possessions.

Miami scores 111.4 points per game at home, and 107.5 on the road.

Bucks Key Players to Watch

The Bucks get 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists from Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Jrue Holiday puts up 19.3 points per game while adding 5.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists for the Bucks.

Holiday leads active Bucks in three-point shooting, knocking down an average of 2.4 shots per game from beyond the arc.

Holiday averages 1.2 takeaways per game, and Brook Lopez records 2.5 rejections per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Bam Adebayo has been among the team’s best in both scoring (20.4 points per game) and rebounding (9.2 rebounds per game) while adding 3.2 assists per contest.

Jimmy Butler’s per-game averages this season are 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds.

Tyler Herro hits three threes per game.

The Heat’s defensive effort gets a boost from Butler’s 1.8 steals and Adebayo’s 0.8 blocks per game.

Bucks vs. Heat Prediction

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 9.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (220.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Bucks 116 – Heat 108

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