Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA Playoffs Game 3 Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, April 21, 2023

Anthony Edwards’ Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40) are only 2-point underdogs in Friday’s matchup with Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (53-29). The over/under for the game is 222.5.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds

• Nuggets odds to win: -131
• Timberwolves odds to win: +111
• Spread: Nuggets (-2)
• Total: 222.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Friday, April 21, 2023 at 9:30 PM ET
• Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota
• TV: ESPN, BSN, and ALT

Who Will Win Nuggets vs. Timberwolves?

Nuggets and Timberwolves Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games this season they were favored by 2 points or more, the Nuggets have a 29-27-1 record against the spread.

In games this season in which they were an underdog by 2 points or more, the Timberwolves have a 21-16 record against the spread.

The Nuggets and the Timberwolves combine to average 9.1 more points per game than the over/under of 222.5 set for this game.

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 5.8 more points per game, 228.3, than this matchup’s over/under of 222.5 points.

The average over/under the Nuggets have had in their games this year is 5.8 more points than this particular game’s point total.

Minnesota’s games this season have averaged an over/under of 231.6 points, 9.1 more than the point total in this matchup.

Denver has a 44-36-2 record against the spread this season.

The Timberwolves have gone 39-41-2 ATS this year.

Nuggets Stats & Insights

The Nuggets have a +273 scoring differential, topping opponents by 3.3 points per game. They’re putting up 115.8 points per game to rank 12th in the league and are giving up 112.5 per contest to rank eighth in the NBA.

The Nuggets win the rebound battle by 2.2 boards on average. They record 43 rebounds per game, which ranks 18th in the league, while their opponents pull down 40.8 per outing.

Denver connects on 11.8 three-pointers per game (18th in the league), while its opponents have made 11.4 on average.

The Nuggets put up 116.3 points per 100 possessions (second in the league), while allowing 112.9 points per 100 possessions (19th in the NBA).

The Nuggets’ offense has been much better in home games (119.4 PPG) compared to their play on the road (112.2 PPG). Likewise, their defense has been much better when playing at home (109.6 PPG allowed) when compared to away games (115.3 PPG allowed).

Timberwolves Stats & Insights

The Timberwolves score 115.8 points per game (12th in NBA) and allow 115.8 (18th in league) for a -3 scoring differential overall.

The 41.9 rebounds per game Minnesota accumulates rank 23rd in the NBA, 2.8 fewer than the 44.7 its opponents record.

The Timberwolves connect on 12.2 three-pointers per game (13th in the league) at a 36.5% rate (13th in NBA), compared to the 12.3 their opponents make, shooting 36.9% from beyond the arc.

The Timberwolves rank 23rd in the league averaging 111.3 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are 10th, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions.

Minnesota is putting up more points at home (115.9 per game) than away (115.6).

Nuggets Key Players to Watch

Jokic accumulates 24.5 points and 11.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game.

Michael Porter Jr. makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Nuggets, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of three per contest.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope averages 1.5 steals per game, while Aaron Gordon has 0.8 blocks per contest.

Timberwolves Key Players to Watch

Edwards racks up 24.6 points per game. He also contributes 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game this season.

This season, Rudy Gobert has a statline of 13.4 points, 1.2 assists and 11.6 rebounds per game.

Edwards knocks down 2.7 threes per game.

The Timberwolves’ defensive efforts get a lift from Edwards’ 1.6 steals and Gobert’s 1.4 blocks per game.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction

• Pick ATS: Timberwolves (+ 2)
• Pick OU:

  Over (222.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Nuggets 115 – Timberwolves 114

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