Bucks vs. Heat NBA Playoffs Game 3 Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Saturday, April 22, 2023

Milwaukee is a 2.5-point favorite against Miami when Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks (58-24) and the Bam Adebayo-led Heat (44-38) play on April 22, 2023. The over/under for the game is 218.

Bucks vs. Heat Odds

• Bucks odds to win: -149
• Heat odds to win: +125
• Spread: Bucks (-2.5)
• Total: 218

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Game Time and Information

• When: Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
• Where: FTX Arena in Miami, Florida
• TV: ESPN, BSSUN, and BSWI

Who Will Win Bucks vs. Heat?

Bucks and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games they have played as at least 2.5-point favorites this season, the Bucks are 30-21-3 against the spread.

The Heat are 8-10 against the spread when an underdog by 2.5 points or more this year.

These two teams average 226.4 points per game combined, 8.4 more than the total of 218.

Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 223.1 points per game, 5.1 more than the over/under for this matchup.

The Bucks’ average point total in outings this year is 230.2, 12.2 points higher than the over/under in this game.

The average over/under in Miami’s games this season is 1.3 more points than the point total of 218 for this outing.

Milwaukee has gone 42-35-5 ATS this season.

The Heat’s ATS record is 30-48-4 this year.

Bucks Stats & Insights

The Bucks outscore opponents by 3.6 points per game (scoring 116.9 points per game to rank eighth in the league while giving up 113.3 per contest to rank 14th in the NBA) and have a +298 scoring differential overall.

The Bucks come out on top in the rebound battle by an average of 4.4 boards. They are recording 48.6 rebounds per game (first in the league) compared to their opponents’ 44.2 per outing.

Milwaukee hits 2.7 more threes per game than the opposition, 14.8 (fourth-most in the league) compared to its opponents’ 12.1.

The Bucks rank ninth in the NBA with 114.1 points scored per 100 possessions, and fourth in the league defensively with 109.4 points conceded per 100 possessions.

The Bucks’ offense has been much better in home games (118.8 PPG) compared to road games (115.0 PPG). Similarly, their defense has been better in home games (112.5 PPG allowed) compared to their play on the road (114.1 PPG allowed).

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat score 109.5 points per game (30th in NBA) and give up 109.8 (second in league) for a -26 scoring differential overall.

Miami comes up short in the rebound battle by an average of 1.3 boards. It records 40.6 rebounds per game (27th in league) compared to its opponents’ 41.9.

The Heat connect on 12.0 three-pointers per game (16th in the league), 1.1 fewer than their opponents.

The Heat’s 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 25th in the NBA, and the 110.6 points they concede per 100 possessions rank ninth in the league.

In 2022-23 Miami is scoring 3.9 more points per game at home (111.4) than away (107.5).

Bucks Key Players to Watch

Antetokounmpo averages 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.

Jrue Holiday averages 19.3 points per game and adds 5.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists for the Bucks.

Holiday leads active Bucks in three-point shooting, making an average of 2.4 shots per game from beyond the arc.

Holiday averages 1.2 steals per game, while Brook Lopez swats 2.5 shots per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo has been among the team’s best in both scoring (20.4 points per game) and rebounding (9.2 rebounds per game) while adding 3.2 assists per contest.

Jimmy Butler has per-game averages of 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds this season.

Max Strus knocks down 2.5 threes per game.

Butler’s 1.8 steals and Adebayo’s 0.8 blocks per game are vital to the Heat’s defensive performance.

Bucks vs. Heat Prediction

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 2.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (218)
  

• Prediction:
  Bucks 114 – Heat 112

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