Bucks vs. Heat NBA Playoffs Game 4 Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Monday, April 24, 2023

The Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) are 7.5-point favorites as they prepare to hit the court against the Miami Heat (44-38) on April 24, 2023. The over/under for the game is 218.5.

Bucks vs. Heat Odds

• Bucks odds to win: -324
• Heat odds to win: +256
• Spread: Bucks (-7.5)
• Total: 218.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Monday, April 24, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
• Where: FTX Arena in Miami, Florida
• TV: TNT, BSSUN, and BSWI

Who Will Win Bucks vs. Heat?

Bucks and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Bucks have an 11-15 record against the spread when favored by 7.5 points or more this season.

The Heat are 1-2 against the spread when an underdog by 7.5 points or more this year.

These teams average 226.4 points per game combined, 7.9 more than the total of 218.5.

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 4.6 more points per game (223.1) than this matchup’s total of 218.5 points.

The average total the Bucks have had set in games this year is 11.7 more points than this outing’s point total.

The average point total for Miami this year is 0.8 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Milwaukee’s ATS record is 42-35-5 this season.

The Heat’s ATS record is 30-48-4 this season.

Bucks Stats & Insights

The Bucks have a +298 scoring differential, topping opponents by 3.6 points per game. They’re putting up 116.9 points per game to rank eighth in the league and are allowing 113.3 per contest to rank 14th in the NBA.

The Bucks come out on top in the rebound battle by an average of 4.4 boards. They are pulling down 48.6 rebounds per game (first in the league) compared to their opponents’ 44.2 per outing.

Milwaukee hits 14.8 three-pointers per game (fourth-most in the league), 2.7 more than its opponents (12.1). It is shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc (10th in the NBA) while allowing opponents to shoot 35.4%.

The Bucks score 114.1 points per 100 possessions (ninth in the league), while allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions (fourth in the NBA).

The Bucks have been better offensively at home, where they score 118.8 points per game, compared to on the road, where they score 115.0 per game. Defensively, they are better at home, where they give up 112.5 points per game, versus playing on the road, where they allow opponents to score 114.1 per game.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat have a -26 scoring differential, putting up 109.5 points per game (30th in league) and giving up 109.8 (second in NBA).

Miami loses the rebound battle by 1.3 boards on average. It records 40.6 rebounds per game, 27th in the league, while its opponents grab 41.9.

The Heat hit 12.0 three-pointers per game (16th in the league), 1.1 fewer than their opponents. They are shooting 34.4% from beyond the arc (27th in NBA) and opponents are shooting 36.7%.

The Heat’s 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 25th in the NBA, and the 110.6 points they concede per 100 possessions rank ninth in the league.

At home, Miami scores 111.4 points per game. On the road, it scores 107.5.

Bucks Key Players to Watch

Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.

Jrue Holiday’s averages this season are 19.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game.

Holiday leads active Bucks in three-point shooting, knocking down an average of 2.4 shots per game from beyond the arc.

Holiday picks up 1.2 takeaways per game, while Brook Lopez compiles 2.5 rejections per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Bam Adebayo has the top Heat spot in two categories among active players: scoring (20.4 points per game) and rebounding (9.2 rebounds per game). He also dishes out 3.2 assists per contest.

The Heat have gotten 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds out of Jimmy Butler this season.

Max Strus knocks down 2.5 threes per game.

The Heat’s defensive effort gets a lift from Butler (1.8 steals per game) and Adebayo (0.8 blocks per game).

Bucks vs. Heat Prediction

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 7.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (218.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Bucks 113 – Heat 112

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