Bucks vs. Heat NBA Playoffs Game 5 Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, April 26, 2023

The Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) enter their matchup against the Miami Heat (44-38) on April 26, 2023 as double-digit favorites. Milwaukee is favored by 12 points. The game’s over/under is 220.

Bucks vs. Heat Odds

• Bucks odds to win: -656
• Heat odds to win: +474
• Spread: Bucks (-12)
• Total: 220

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Game Time and Information

• When: Wednesday, April 26, 2023 at 9:30 PM ET
• Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
• TV: NBA TV, BSWI, and BSSUN

Who Will Win Bucks vs. Heat?

Bucks and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games they have played as at least 12-point favorites this season, the Bucks are 2-6 against the spread.

Between them, these two teams average 6.4 more points per game (226.4) than this game’s over/under (220).

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 3.1 more points per game (223.1) than this game’s total of 220 points.

The average over/under the Bucks have had set in games this season is 10.2 more points than this outing’s point total.

The average point total for Miami this season is 0.7 points fewer than this game’s over/under.

Milwaukee’s ATS record is 42-35-5 this season.

The Heat have a 30-48-4 record against the spread this year.

Bucks Stats & Insights

The Bucks average 116.9 points per game (eighth in the league) while giving up 113.3 per contest (14th in the NBA). They have a +298 scoring differential overall and outscore opponents by 3.6 points per game.

The Bucks win the rebound battle by 4.4 boards on average. They collect 48.6 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the league, while their opponents pull down 44.2 per contest.

Milwaukee makes 14.8 three-pointers per game (fourth-most in the league) while shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc (10th in the NBA). It is making 2.7 more threes per outing than its opponents, who drain 12.1 per game while shooting 35.4%.

The Bucks rank ninth in the league by averaging 114.1 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are fourth in the NBA, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions.

So far in 2022-23, the Bucks’ offense has been better at home, where they score 118.8 points per game, compared to road games, where they score 115.0 per game. On defense, they have been tougher in home games, where they allow 112.5 points per game, versus on the road, where they allow opponents to score 114.1 per game.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat score 109.5 points per game (30th in NBA) and concede 109.8 (second in league) for a -26 scoring differential overall.

Miami ranks 27th in the NBA at 40.6 rebounds per game. That’s 1.3 fewer than the 41.9 its opponents average.

The Heat make 12.0 three-pointers per game (16th in the league) at a 34.4% rate (27th in NBA), compared to the 13.1 per contest their opponents make, shooting 36.7% from beyond the arc.

The Heat average 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense (25th in league), and allow 110.6 points per 100 possessions (ninth in NBA).

Miami averages 111.4 points per game at home, and 107.5 away.

Bucks Key Players to Watch

Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.

Jrue Holiday contributes with 5.1 boards and 7.4 assists per game in addition to his 19.3 PPG scoring average.

Holiday makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Bucks, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.4 per contest.

Holiday averages 1.2 steals per game, while Brook Lopez has 2.5 blocks per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Bam Adebayo is at the top of the Heat scoring and rebounding leaderboards with 20.4 points per game and 9.2 rebounds per game to go with 3.2 assists per contest this season.

Jimmy Butler’s per-game averages this season are 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds.

Max Strus knocks down 2.5 threes per game.

The Heat’s defensive effort gets a lift from Butler (1.8 steals per game) and Adebayo (0.8 blocks per game).

Bucks vs. Heat Prediction

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 12)
• Pick OU:

  Over (220)
  

• Prediction:
  Bucks 116 – Heat 109

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