Heat vs. Knicks Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 3 Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Saturday, May 6, 2023

Julius Randle’s New York Knicks (47-35) will try to upset Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat when the Knicks square off against the Heat on May 6, 2023. The line has the Heat favored by 4.5 points against the Knicks. The matchup has an over/under of 207.

Heat vs. Knicks Odds

• Heat odds to win: -181
• Knicks odds to win: +153
• Spread: Heat (-4.5)
• Total: 207

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Game Time and Information

• When: Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 3:30 PM ET
• Where: FTX Arena in Miami, Florida
• TV: ABC

Who Will Win Heat vs. Knicks?

Heat and Knicks Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Heat have a 6-19-1 record against the spread this season when favored by 4.5 points or more.

The Knicks have a 5-5-2 record against the spread in games they were an underdog by 4.5 points or more this season.

These two teams average 225.5 points per game combined, 18.5 more than the total of 207.

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 15.9 more points per game, 222.9, than this matchup’s total of 207 points.

The average over/under the Heat have had set in games this season is 12.3 more points than this outing’s point total.

The average point total for New York this season is 22.1 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Miami is 30-48-4 ATS this season.

So far this season, the Knicks have put together a 45-35-2 record against the spread.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat average 109.5 points per game (30th in the league) while allowing 109.8 per contest (second in the NBA). They have a -26 scoring differential overall.

The Heat average 40.6 rebounds per game (27th in the league) while allowing 41.9 per outing to their opponents. They are outrebounded by 1.3 boards per game.

Miami knocks down 12 three-pointers per game (16th in the league), 1.1 fewer than its opponents (13.1).

The Heat rank 25th in the league by averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are ninth in the NBA, allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Heat’s offense has been much better when playing at home (111.4 PPG) compared to away games (107.5 PPG). However, their defense has been worse in home games (110.2 PPG allowed) compared to road games (109.3 PPG allowed).

Knicks Stats & Insights

The Knicks’ +240 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 2.9 points per game) is a result of putting up 116 points per game (11th in NBA) while allowing 113.1 per contest (12th in league).

The 46.6 rebounds per game New York accumulates rank second in the league, 4.6 more than the 42 its opponents grab.

The Knicks make 12.6 three-pointers per game (11th in the league), while their opponents have made 13 on average.

The Knicks’ 114.9 points per 100 possessions on offense rank sixth in the NBA, and the 111.7 points they concede per 100 possessions rank 16th in the league.

New York is scoring more points at home (117.3 per game) than away (114.8).

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo accumulates 20.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, with 3.2 assists.

Jimmy Butler’s averages this season are 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game.

The Heat get 2.5 three-pointers per game out of Max Strus.

Butler averages 1.8 steals per game, while Adebayo swats 0.8 shots per contest.

Knicks Key Players to Watch

Randle is at the top of the Knicks scoring and rebounding leaderboards with 25.1 points per game and 10 rebounds per game to go with 4.1 assists per contest this season.

Jalen Brunson has per-game averages of 24 points, 6.2 assists and 3.5 rebounds this season.

Randle averages 2.8 made threes per game.

The Knicks’ defensive efforts get a boost from Josh Hart (1.2 steals per game) and Mitchell Robinson (1.8 blocks per game).

Heat vs. Knicks Prediction

• Pick ATS: Knicks (+ 4.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (207)
  

• Prediction:
  Heat 113 – Knicks 112

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